Heading into Black Friday and the holiday shopping season, there are clear retail winners and losers emerging, according to Jharonne Martis, Director of Consumer Research at Thomson Reuters. Martis says value is important to consumers this year, and off-price stores like Ross (ROST) and TJX (TJX) pose a risk to the traditional department stores. She says J.C. Penney (JCP) is one of the best positioned department stores, thanks to its Sephora products, and strong sales of home goods. She thinks among higher-end stores, Nordstrom (JWN) will be a winner. Martis projects that cosmetics company Ulta (ULTA) will have the strongest same-store sales in the fourth quarter, projected at more than 11%. She also expects strong sales for Kate Spade (KATE) and Lululemon (LULU) . On the opposite side of the spectrum, Martis believes The Buckle (BKE) , GNC (GNC) and Sears (SHLD) will see negative same-store sales growth. Martis says the internet and catalog retail sector should see earnings grow by more than 18% in the fourth quarter, led by e-commerce king Amazon.com (AMZN) But she said online competition is picking up from retailers like Walmart (WMT) .
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