The economy is shaky and the fear is real, but at some point the bad news overloads us, and we have to start looking for the green shoots.
The key is to buy when risk is low and the potential for sustained upside is high -- now is not that time.
I haven't seen anything in the past three weeks that I haven't seen before, but I just can't model this reaction to Covid-19, so I can't call a bottom.
Monday saw a different sort of market decline -- we saw the Fan Fave stocks get taken to the woodshed.
Let's look to the chart of 2010 for clues...
These names are showing both technical and quantitative deterioration.
It's ugly, and it's what happens when a market gets oversold and can't rally.
Don't try to predict a top -- or a bottom -- but react.
A bear market, if it gets us all to slow down, may be necessary to slow the coronavirus' spread -- but this doesn't mean I'm giving up. To the contrary.
Now, expect another rise up, and then to come down again.