We reached short-term overbought, but it's not bearish ... yet.
Despite big news headlines recently and the looming Fed rate decision, market players appear to show little emotion.
The S&P 500 gained nearly 1% and the Dow Jones industrial average is up about 1.5%, but look at all that went on under the hood this week.
Many market players are anxious to embrace the much anticipated bearish narrative, but the market refuses to acknowledge the bearish arguments, as players are already prepared for bad news.
After the dramatic rotation, continued concern about a recession and difficult trade negotiations with China, plenty of good arguments for downside exist, but the bears are running into two big problems.
The market moves to a short-term overbought condition on Thursday, breadth has been positive, and the intermediate-term indicators are still positive, so I expect a dip or a pullback, and then we rally again.
Software and big-cap technology stocks are selling, while money moves into financials, oils and other groups that have lagged -- but the lack of an obvious catalyst for the moves is causing some worry.
These 'bearish bets' are showing both technical and quantitative deterioration.
In the last 48 hours, we have swung from despair to indifference and then hope, but with a strong emotional reaction lacking, trading range remains stuck.
Bears had the chance to sell into the gap-up open, and when they failed to gain traction, the bulls started to slowly go to work, helping improve the action.