If you were looking for something substantial to nudge you in the direction of being bullish, Monday's regular session didn't give you much to hang your hat on.
While the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) finished the day in the black, the first long opportunity from above the session's volume-weighted average price (VWAP) didn't trigger until around 12:20 pm ET.
The break above VWAP was nice, but as you can see on the chart below, the rally was weak, and sellers knocked prices down during the final few minutes of the session.
Chart Source: Bloomberg
The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) was stuck in a narrow range throughout the regular session. I would continue to steer clear of the SPY, long or short, until it shows some sign of bullish momentum above $400 or, if you're a short-seller, bearish momentum beneath $390.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) closed above its 5-day and 10-day exponential moving averages for the tenth session in a row. While not a meaningful statistic, even the most aggressive short-sellers should tread carefully when selling a stock or ETF short that can't close beneath a 5-day EMA.
My view on the QQQ is pretty straightforward. While aggressive buyers don't want to see a close under the 5-day EMA, those utilizing a multi-day or multi-week timeframe should be focused on minor price support at $304 and the rising 21-day EMA. Until the QQQ closes under the 21-EMA, I give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.
The past five days of churning around $310 are definitely wearing on some bullish traders, but recession chatter aside, and if we ignore the fact that Apple (AAPL) , Microsoft (MSFT) , Amazon (AMZN) , Nvidia (NVDA) , and Alphabet (GOOGL) comprise around 40% of the QQQ allocation, the chart of the Nasdaq still looks OK.
If mega-cap technology takes a hit, the QQQ will return to 200-day simple moving average around $290 in short order. But barring such a dislocation, the path of least resistance remains toward $315.