The Federal Reserve left rates alone, but don't miss these subtle signals coming from Wednesday's statement.
Let's look back to a year ago this month, when most investors saw volatility and a lack of liquidity; and then turn to now, as the tariff deadline looms and the VIX vs. VIX futures gap widens.
It appears that an overwhelming amount of bad news would be needed for the Fed to cut in December, but 2020 is a different story.
I see two ways the trade talks can play out from here, and how the effects of each will ripple out into the global economy.
But is this market's insatiable drive to be trusted?
BB- and B-rated bonds have performed well lately, but CCC-rated bonds are a different story -- this divergence hasn't happened in nearly two decades and it gives clues about what to expect for 2020.
Here are my views on topics including interest rate risks, events in Europe that could push European yields higher and the ongoing trade talks between Washington and Beijing.
Don't bet on the Fed to make any further cuts after the third, and start preparing for a hawkish turn.
Here's my take on the Federal Reserve's expanded balance sheet, the Labor Department's jobs survey, and Fed's September meeting minutes.
Thoughts on the ISM, trade, Friday's key job report and how to play it all.