We're Seeing Something Strange in the Credit Markets Right Now
BB- and B-rated bonds have performed well lately, but CCC-rated bonds are a different story -- this divergence hasn't happened in nearly two decades and it gives clues about what to expect for 2020.
From Treasuries to Trade: 11 Topics to Watch
Here are my views on topics including interest rate risks, events in Europe that could push European yields higher and the ongoing trade talks between Washington and Beijing.
3 Cuts and You're Out
Don't bet on the Fed to make any further cuts after the third, and start preparing for a hawkish turn.
All Signs Point to Falling Rates as Downturn Looms
Here's my take on the Federal Reserve's expanded balance sheet, the Labor Department's jobs survey, and Fed's September meeting minutes.
No False Positive: The Global Economy Is Slowing
Thoughts on the ISM, trade, Friday's key job report and how to play it all.
You Could Have Made 8.7% on Japan in the Last 4 Weeks
International investors have been heavy sellers in Tokyo for quite some time. They tend to sell at exactly the wrong time. It seems many have made that mistake again.
Gloom and Doom Could Lead to Several Positive Surprises
it seems that consensus is to interpret anything that can be viewed as bad, as actually bad, and anything that could be good, as an aberration that will soon become bad.
The Fed Will Likely Cut Interest Rates Wednesday, but Will the Market Care?
Over the past decade, not fighting the Fed has been the single best piece of advice any market strategist could offer.
Weak Bond Action Is a Headscratcher
There doesn't seem to be any particularly fundamental reason for bonds to weaken to such a degree.
Are We Approaching a Minsky Moment?
A Minsky moment is when excessive speculation leads to excessive demand for credit and excessive leverage.