Surprises in the political arena and in corporate profitability are my most important deviations from the consensus.
There are multiple reasons to be wary of the market at these levels, and to be concerned about potential of rising inflation.
Clinging to outmoded ideas of what is 'normal' and even what is 'low' will prevent you from seeing just how hands-off this Fed really is.
The Committee members seem to be cautiously optimistic, and this fits well with their decision to keep rates on hold.
Investing in these bonds requires a counter-intuitive approach, and reframing how you look at risk.
The Federal Reserve left rates alone, but don't miss these subtle signals coming from Wednesday's statement.
Let's look back to a year ago this month, when most investors saw volatility and a lack of liquidity; and then turn to now, as the tariff deadline looms and the VIX vs. VIX futures gap widens.
It appears that an overwhelming amount of bad news would be needed for the Fed to cut in December, but 2020 is a different story.
I see two ways the trade talks can play out from here, and how the effects of each will ripple out into the global economy.
But is this market's insatiable drive to be trusted?