The odds that the Fed would cut were already quite low and the news Tuesday of some progress on China trade makes it even more unlikely.
Comments from President Donald Trump and the European Central Bank gave the markets a jolt before Wednesday's Fed meeting.
Short-term chop or pullback appear likely, but there's an indicator worth fretting over: The 50- and 200-day moving average lines of the Russell 2000 are rolling over.
On Tuesday, topping 2900 looked like a climb too high for the S&P, but let's see what the indicators say.
While some profit-taking was overdue, the question now is whether this is simply a refresh pause or a signal that the indices are set to roll over.
Let's check out what happened while I was away.
Anything weak is a positive to be excited about and anything strong is a nightmare because that might stiffen Powell's resolve to keep rates where they are instead of cutting them.
This trade offers everything I'm looking for in defined risk and upside target.
When it comes to inflation, the Fed may be risking their credibility.
Strictly in terms of the trade war, the question is whether tariffs are ultimately inflationary or not.