Some will tell you that the bond market is pricing in doom and gloom. But is that really the case?
The risks are likely different from what you've been told. Here's what you should be watching instead and how it could impact your investment decisions.
I decided to look into this space to get a sense of what is priced in. The answers surprised me.
Is cash still king? Hard to say for sure. Do investors need to be diversified? Yes.
We're looking for the VIX to work its way lower over time and the S&P higher, but it'll be a bumpy ride.
But what can we expect from this program, what kinds of bonds should benefit, and is the Fed setting us up for disappointment?
At least don't think about asking Fed Chief Jerome Powell. The Fed concluded its June meeting, and here are my takeaways.
The European Union has unveiled a historic proposal to fund fiscal stimulus through a common bond issuance, and it could mean real competition for the U.S. Treasuries.
Those chasing returns in credit need to be aware of what the Fed is and isn't trying to achieve, so let's dig in.
Here's my take on the Fed's corporate bond ETF buying, Germany's ruling on quantitative easing and the Treasury's decision on new bond sales.
Let's review the charts and indicators.
This is a game in which Jerome Powell & Co. have played their turn, and now await their opponent's move; also here are the bonds to own now.
I'm focused on buying longer bonds, mostly in the 10-year maturity range.
The Fed has made three big changes to its corporate bond-buying program, and here's my take what the controversial moves mean.
But as jobless claims explode while the coronavirus takes its toll, we have heroes at the nation's hospitals and heroes delivering packages and stocking shelves, and we have possibly the greatest Fed ever.
Jay Powell understands the history of the Fed and the mistakes it has made.
As the Covid-19 crisis takes its toll on our people and economy -- and the world's -- we must break things down as simply as possible to see what's happening.
After a strong day for fixed-income markets, let's learn from 2008 how to play this volatility.
Watch these three ETFs for the signs that Fed support is working.
Let's review the positives and negatives of what's happening right now.
Action in a lot of these other securities only makes sense if there is a liquidity squeeze going on.
Kraft Heinz, Macy's and Renault have all recently been downgraded, and now the question must be asked: Is this the start of something bigger?
Focus on the big picture and you'll see there has never been a less favorable time to own fixed income.
Investing in these bonds requires a counter-intuitive approach, and reframing how you look at risk.
Let's look back to a year ago this month, when most investors saw volatility and a lack of liquidity; and then turn to now, as the tariff deadline looms and the VIX vs. VIX futures gap widens.
BB- and B-rated bonds have performed well lately, but CCC-rated bonds are a different story -- this divergence hasn't happened in nearly two decades and it gives clues about what to expect for 2020.
Reports of two potentially major buyouts show the risks of late-cycle corporate bond investing.
This is why rates rose the day the Fed made such strongly dovish comments, and how you should manage your fixed income portfolio in response.
My 'Hopium/Doomium' model has stood the test of time.
What I would rather invest in to get similar yields.