Given recent actions, the way we view fixed income may be changed forever.
After a strong day for fixed-income markets, let's learn from 2008 how to play this volatility.
A U.S. dollar that is rising in value against most other currencies is creating a huge problem for a world inundated with dollar-priced debt.
Action in a lot of these other securities only makes sense if there is a liquidity squeeze going on.
These are not investable markets, yet. Wait it out, the damage is beyond a small fix now.
Dramatically slashing interest rates to zero and promising huge asset purchases are instilling fear, not confidence, in market participants.
And the bond market isn't saying encouraging things just now.
Let's break down the move and what it could mean -- and what the Fed just won't be able to help as the coronavirus spreads.
The psychology of the market will be quite different now as news hits.
Here's how we would play shares of the pharmaceutical giant now.
Both the Dow and the S&P are still under where they were last Wednesday, despite the bounce.
The market is all about technicals now. The real buying will only come once the virus is contained or Fed goes all in, as China seems to be willing to do so at all costs.
I want you to write down what I always tell you, and post it somewhere where you can see it when you need it: Understand, Identify, Adapt, Overcome, and Maintain.
Every minute detail and data point is misinterpreted to paint a positive picture for stocks.
Kraft Heinz, Macy's and Renault have all recently been downgraded, and now the question must be asked: Is this the start of something bigger?
We're also focused on buying bonds that can survive a bad downturn. This gives us a game plan going into a recession.
In some scenarios, the 10-year is actually cheap at 1.65%; here's why.
What the central bank said and hinted about rate cuts, inflation, repo lending and the coronavirus.
As the debt markets sit in a moment of complacency, here's why you should check the balance sheet rundown on each stock you own.
But I still see one area of stocks that should outperform.
Surprises in the political arena and in corporate profitability are my most important deviations from the consensus.
There are multiple reasons to be wary of the market at these levels, and to be concerned about potential of rising inflation.
Clinging to outmoded ideas of what is 'normal' and even what is 'low' will prevent you from seeing just how hands-off this Fed really is.
The Committee members seem to be cautiously optimistic, and this fits well with their decision to keep rates on hold.
Investing in these bonds requires a counter-intuitive approach, and reframing how you look at risk.
The Federal Reserve left rates alone, but don't miss these subtle signals coming from Wednesday's statement.
Let's look back to a year ago this month, when most investors saw volatility and a lack of liquidity; and then turn to now, as the tariff deadline looms and the VIX vs. VIX futures gap widens.
It appears that an overwhelming amount of bad news would be needed for the Fed to cut in December, but 2020 is a different story.
I see two ways the trade talks can play out from here, and how the effects of each will ripple out into the global economy.
But is this market's insatiable drive to be trusted?