Rates and Bonds
Bond Market Holds the Line at 1.5%
The bond market is calling the shots for stocks right now.
Inverted-Yield Curve Isn't Really Such a Curve Ball
Why this much-hyped move isn't so special and how to play it to your advantage.
Don't Be Suckered by the Recent Treasury-Bond Rally
But do think about refinancing your home mortgage.
How to Play Potential Rate Cuts
Let's look at the chances of cuts in September and October, and how to use dollar and yen exchange-traded funds to your advantage.
Trade War Reignited: 6 Reasons Why It's Worse This Time
Markets got hit hard in May when trade talks broke down and the president instituted new tariffs, but things are different now.
Dissecting the Rate Cut
While the Fed action was widely expected -- even if the market was hoping for clear signals of future cuts -- here's my read on what this means for markets and how I am thinking about positioning going forward.
Don't Gamble With Fed News, Just Know How to Respond
The announcement of a rate cut is just a trigger that leads to a series of reverberations, so know how to navigate the volatility afterward.
Historic Day for Central Banking Looms With Cut Announcement
Will we see no cut, or a 25- or 50-basis-point chop? Here's what is likely to happen.
A Perfect Mix of Good Earnings and Dovish Central Banks
Look for the market to digest the DOJ antitrust news quickly and focus again on the Fed and earnings.
Why Rates Really Can't Rise Much From Here
Beware the old way of thinking about the Fed.
5 Key Takeaways From the Fed Minutes and Powell's Testimony
This appears to be one of the most spirited debates within the Fed in several years.
Bears Can't Block Buyers Ahead of Fed Testimony
Despite anxiety over a possible slowdown and rate-cut decision at the end of the month, bears don't follow-through on Tuesday as buying picks up.
Monday Trading Bogged Down by Fed, Trade Fears
Not even dip-buying could save Monday as concerns lingered over a looming Fed rate decision following good jobs news and over reports in Chinese press of a lack of trade progress.
3 Reasons to Buy European Banks After Deutsche Bank's Announcement
Look for Christine Lagarde to turn the ECB into a champion of fiscal stimulus.
Bulls Still Optimistic the Economy Is Weak Enough for Rate Cuts
It is an odd dynamic right now with the Fed being more important than the actual economy.
The Reaction to the Jobs Report Is More Important Than the Hard News
Next week I will be shorting stocks. A lot of them. I cannot wait.
Low Expectations on a China Deal Is Not Bothering the Market
Despite stories of possibly higher tariffs on imports, the market sees little reaction.
Bored Traders Prove Easily Lured by Shiny Coin
With lackluster indexes, traders were drawn to wild action in bitcoin.
Be Careful What You Wish for When Hoping the Fed Cuts Rates
It could be a few rate cuts would improve business sentiment, but watch out if the Fed needs to keep cutting.
Go With the Flow
While many traders side with either bears or bulls, remember to embrace the ebb and flow of markets.
Trading Success Is a Function of This One Thing
Look not to the crystal ball, but at change.
So, Who's in the Pool?
There was some toe-dipping as folks had moved from one side of the fence to fence-sitting, but Thursday's rally probably brought a few more into the pool.
Where the Fed Is Headed
The Fed appeared to hint that a cut could be coming later as it focuses on expansion -- here's what that could mean.
Keep One Eye on the Fed, One on the Russell
Watch the Russell 2000: It closed at 1550, which is where the 200-day moving average line resides -- if it can get up and over this level, it can improve, but if it slips, those moving average lines become problematic.
Fed Unlikely to Cut Loose
The odds that the Fed would cut were already quite low and the news Tuesday of some progress on China trade makes it even more unlikely.
No Calm Before the Storm
Comments from President Donald Trump and the European Central Bank gave the markets a jolt before Wednesday's Fed meeting.
Chop, Pullback Likely, But No Recipe Yet for Big Decline
Short-term chop or pullback appear likely, but there's an indicator worth fretting over: The 50- and 200-day moving average lines of the Russell 2000 are rolling over.
Still Room to Breathe on the S&P
On Tuesday, topping 2900 looked like a climb too high for the S&P, but let's see what the indicators say.
Market Gets Character Change, But Maybe Not for Better
While some profit-taking was overdue, the question now is whether this is simply a refresh pause or a signal that the indices are set to roll over.
I Step Out, the Market Rallies
Let's check out what happened while I was away.