Rates and Bonds
All Signs Point to Falling Rates as Downturn Looms
Here's my take on the Federal Reserve's expanded balance sheet, the Labor Department's jobs survey, and Fed's September meeting minutes.
No False Positive: The Global Economy Is Slowing
Thoughts on the ISM, trade, Friday's key job report and how to play it all.
You Could Have Made 8.7% on Japan in the Last 4 Weeks
International investors have been heavy sellers in Tokyo for quite some time. They tend to sell at exactly the wrong time. It seems many have made that mistake again.
Gloom and Doom Could Lead to Several Positive Surprises
it seems that consensus is to interpret anything that can be viewed as bad, as actually bad, and anything that could be good, as an aberration that will soon become bad.
The Fed Will Likely Cut Interest Rates Wednesday, but Will the Market Care?
Over the past decade, not fighting the Fed has been the single best piece of advice any market strategist could offer.
Weak Bond Action Is a Headscratcher
There doesn't seem to be any particularly fundamental reason for bonds to weaken to such a degree.
Are We Approaching a Minsky Moment?
A Minsky moment is when excessive speculation leads to excessive demand for credit and excessive leverage.
Not Long Bonds Yet? Here's Why There's Still a Good Opportunity
I'm playing for the move down to 1% or 0.50% and earning yield while I wait.
How Low Can Treasury Yields Fall in the U.S.?
Let's look at a number of charts to get some perspective on this investment arena.
6 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Buy Treasuries Now
Bonds got ahead of themselves and there were number of factors at work.
Stunning Treasury Rally Is Likely in Its Final Stage
There are two big reasons why the odds of Treasuries moving higher from here are dismal.
Jim Cramer: Playing This Silly Inversion Game Makes Me Sick
There is no real connection to the economy right now because of globalization.
U.S.-China Trade War: Things Will Get Worse Before They Get Better
I start this week in risk-off mode and want to sell every rally in risk.
The Biggest Takeaway From Powell's Speech and What It Means for the Fed
Literally at the same time Powell was speaking, trade tensions were ramping up.
Bird Watching at Jackson Hole? Doves Might Prove Elusive
With uncertainty around what Fed Chair Jerome Powell might say Friday, it's unclear how much dovishness will take the market higher.
Why I'm in No Hurry to Do a Lot of Stock Buying
The market close will be key Monday.
Bond Market Holds the Line at 1.5%
The bond market is calling the shots for stocks right now.
Inverted-Yield Curve Isn't Really Such a Curve Ball
Why this much-hyped move isn't so special and how to play it to your advantage.
Don't Be Suckered by the Recent Treasury-Bond Rally
But do think about refinancing your home mortgage.
How to Play Potential Rate Cuts
Let's look at the chances of cuts in September and October, and how to use dollar and yen exchange-traded funds to your advantage.
Trade War Reignited: 6 Reasons Why It's Worse This Time
Markets got hit hard in May when trade talks broke down and the president instituted new tariffs, but things are different now.
Dissecting the Rate Cut
While the Fed action was widely expected -- even if the market was hoping for clear signals of future cuts -- here's my read on what this means for markets and how I am thinking about positioning going forward.
Don't Gamble With Fed News, Just Know How to Respond
The announcement of a rate cut is just a trigger that leads to a series of reverberations, so know how to navigate the volatility afterward.
Historic Day for Central Banking Looms With Cut Announcement
Will we see no cut, or a 25- or 50-basis-point chop? Here's what is likely to happen.
A Perfect Mix of Good Earnings and Dovish Central Banks
Look for the market to digest the DOJ antitrust news quickly and focus again on the Fed and earnings.
Why Rates Really Can't Rise Much From Here
Beware the old way of thinking about the Fed.
5 Key Takeaways From the Fed Minutes and Powell's Testimony
This appears to be one of the most spirited debates within the Fed in several years.
Bears Can't Block Buyers Ahead of Fed Testimony
Despite anxiety over a possible slowdown and rate-cut decision at the end of the month, bears don't follow-through on Tuesday as buying picks up.
Monday Trading Bogged Down by Fed, Trade Fears
Not even dip-buying could save Monday as concerns lingered over a looming Fed rate decision following good jobs news and over reports in Chinese press of a lack of trade progress.
3 Reasons to Buy European Banks After Deutsche Bank's Announcement
Look for Christine Lagarde to turn the ECB into a champion of fiscal stimulus.