Let's look back to a year ago this month, when most investors saw volatility and a lack of liquidity; and then turn to now, as the tariff deadline looms and the VIX vs. VIX futures gap widens.
It appears that an overwhelming amount of bad news would be needed for the Fed to cut in December, but 2020 is a different story.
I see two ways the trade talks can play out from here, and how the effects of each will ripple out into the global economy.
But is this market's insatiable drive to be trusted?
BB- and B-rated bonds have performed well lately, but CCC-rated bonds are a different story -- this divergence hasn't happened in nearly two decades and it gives clues about what to expect for 2020.
Here are my views on topics including interest rate risks, events in Europe that could push European yields higher and the ongoing trade talks between Washington and Beijing.
Don't bet on the Fed to make any further cuts after the third, and start preparing for a hawkish turn.
Here's my take on the Federal Reserve's expanded balance sheet, the Labor Department's jobs survey, and Fed's September meeting minutes.
Thoughts on the ISM, trade, Friday's key job report and how to play it all.
International investors have been heavy sellers in Tokyo for quite some time. They tend to sell at exactly the wrong time. It seems many have made that mistake again.
it seems that consensus is to interpret anything that can be viewed as bad, as actually bad, and anything that could be good, as an aberration that will soon become bad.
Over the past decade, not fighting the Fed has been the single best piece of advice any market strategist could offer.
There doesn't seem to be any particularly fundamental reason for bonds to weaken to such a degree.
A Minsky moment is when excessive speculation leads to excessive demand for credit and excessive leverage.
I'm playing for the move down to 1% or 0.50% and earning yield while I wait.
Let's look at a number of charts to get some perspective on this investment arena.
Bonds got ahead of themselves and there were number of factors at work.
There are two big reasons why the odds of Treasuries moving higher from here are dismal.
There is no real connection to the economy right now because of globalization.
I start this week in risk-off mode and want to sell every rally in risk.
Literally at the same time Powell was speaking, trade tensions were ramping up.
With uncertainty around what Fed Chair Jerome Powell might say Friday, it's unclear how much dovishness will take the market higher.
The market close will be key Monday.
The bond market is calling the shots for stocks right now.
Why this much-hyped move isn't so special and how to play it to your advantage.
But do think about refinancing your home mortgage.
Let's look at the chances of cuts in September and October, and how to use dollar and yen exchange-traded funds to your advantage.
Markets got hit hard in May when trade talks broke down and the president instituted new tariffs, but things are different now.
While the Fed action was widely expected -- even if the market was hoping for clear signals of future cuts -- here's my read on what this means for markets and how I am thinking about positioning going forward.
The announcement of a rate cut is just a trigger that leads to a series of reverberations, so know how to navigate the volatility afterward.