Rates and Bonds
The Fed Has Never Faced a Scenario Like This
How will the central bank deal with decelerating, but still high inflation, especially if it coincides with decelerating, but still solid economic growth?
How Should We Approach Bonds Now?
Yields will likely be higher over the next year, but for now, we can add back some duration to our portfolio by buying long-dated Treasuries or corporate bonds. Here's my advice.
To Know How the Fed Will Act, We Must Interpret Its Words
Let's check out the Fed's two big goals for action -- higher inflation and maximum employment -- to see what we can realistically expect.
For Rate Watchers, This Day Is of ... Interest
The consumer price index surprises to the upside and the Fed meeting minutes are out. Here's my take on both.
We're Seeing Some Consolidation and Basing Action on Friday
The question now is whether the lows that were hit on Wednesday morning will serve as short-term support as we move into earnings season.
Is Jerome Powell's Renomination Now in Peril?
Plus, my take on Friday's jobs report and the steepening yield curve.
Will Rising Yields Tank Stocks? Let's See How Story on Fed Is Shifting
Bond yields are surging, the yield curve is steepening, and Dallas Fed's Robert Kaplan and Boston's Eric Rosengren are exiting. Here's my take on what's happening.
As the Third Quarter Comes to an End, Bulls Will Keep Pushing
When the market fails to embrace the negative thesis, folks with idle cash slower put it to work.
Is This Another V-Shaped Bounce?
Retests of the lows have been quite rare in recent years.
I'm Locked Onto This Bond ETF
The setup on the weekly for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund is a thing of beauty.
Jim Cramer: Go Ahead, Have a Cow, but I Say Powell and Xi Are Bulls
We rallied, because China's President Xi and Fed Chair Powell made decisions that they knew would lead to rallies.
The One Question, Evergrande, Fed Meeting, Technical Levels, Looming Knife Fight
China cannot be the engine that global economies have relied upon if its goals have shifted back toward pulling power away from even its own leading businesses.
Evolution, Charting the S&P and Nasdaq, Debt Ceiling, Found Money, Trading RH
All life, all learning, from parenting to aging to investing is about adaptation -- the ability to evolve.
How Long Can Rates Stay This Low?
That's a question I get asked a lot. So, let's dig in.
Thoughts on Afghanistan, Monthly Winning Streak, Repo Man, Buy Now, Pay Later
One day, either the Modern Monetary Theorists will be right, or the fiscal hawks will prove correct. Count me with the hawks.
What Fed Tapering Would Mean for the Markets and Economy
Ahead of Jackson Hole, the Fed knows QE is doing more harm than good.
What Afghanistan Means for the Markets
Don't underestimate the changing climate in D.C.
Weights on the Market, Fed Factions, Charting the S&P & Nasdaq, Nvidia the Beast
The U.S. economy's next recession has already been scheduled. We just don't have a specific quarter just yet.
Simplifying the Rates Market
As Jackson Hole approaches, here are my views on tapering, rate hikes and the markets.
How Consumer Prices and QE Are Affecting Markets
The impact of QE is not what you may think, and inflation and rate hikes will have a more direct effect on yields.
This Is a Tough Environment to Forecast Rates
With so many questions around inflation, COVID, the Fed, and stimulus and policy, it's hard to determine what will happen in the rates market. Here's my take.
Why the July Jobs Report Could Be a Game Changer
What you need to know about the blowout report and where markets are likely headed next.
Powell Finds Everything's Not Easing Come, Easing Go
Here are my takeaways from the Fed meeting and why the chair is struggling with messaging as we're getting closer to seeing Quantitative Easing purchase tapering.
Is the Fed Getting Trapped in a Catch-22?
The Fed hopes its efforts will lead to sustainable GDP growth, but if inflation starts to run away too quickly, then Powell and company's hands could be tied.
It's All One Big Macro Trade!
And don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Bad Omens and Chasing Ghosts on the Yield Curve's Slip: Here's My Take
The market's 'narrative' around falling yields isn't internally consistent, suggesting we have several competing narratives playing out at once. Here's what they are and how to position.
Cross Asset Analysis: Who's Right?
Is this a short term deflationary setback or the start of a more ominous trend to emerge?
Prices Are on Fire and Powell Is Getting Grilled, but I'm Keeping Cool
Here's my take on the scorching CPI report as the Fed sits on the hot seat on Capitol Hill.
Powell on the Hill, Inflation and Treasuries, Budget Deficit, Apple, Trading WW
If you are not in the market for a vehicle right now, inflation is right where the pros thought it would be.
Did the Reflation Trade Pop?
What happened to this sell-side investment bank theme we had heard so much about? Let's see.