Rates and Bonds
A December to Remember: A Look at Fed Action from Last Year
Let's look back to a year ago this month, when most investors saw volatility and a lack of liquidity; and then turn to now, as the tariff deadline looms and the VIX vs. VIX futures gap widens.
Fed Minutes Offer Clues on Possibility of Dec. Rate Cut
It appears that an overwhelming amount of bad news would be needed for the Fed to cut in December, but 2020 is a different story.
Trade Is Reaching an Inflection Point
I see two ways the trade talks can play out from here, and how the effects of each will ripple out into the global economy.
Kass: The Market's L-I-B-I-D-O Is in Overdrive
But is this market's insatiable drive to be trusted?
We're Seeing Something Strange in the Credit Markets Right Now
BB- and B-rated bonds have performed well lately, but CCC-rated bonds are a different story -- this divergence hasn't happened in nearly two decades and it gives clues about what to expect for 2020.
From Treasuries to Trade: 11 Topics to Watch
Here are my views on topics including interest rate risks, events in Europe that could push European yields higher and the ongoing trade talks between Washington and Beijing.
3 Cuts and You're Out
Don't bet on the Fed to make any further cuts after the third, and start preparing for a hawkish turn.
All Signs Point to Falling Rates as Downturn Looms
Here's my take on the Federal Reserve's expanded balance sheet, the Labor Department's jobs survey, and Fed's September meeting minutes.
No False Positive: The Global Economy Is Slowing
Thoughts on the ISM, trade, Friday's key job report and how to play it all.
You Could Have Made 8.7% on Japan in the Last 4 Weeks
International investors have been heavy sellers in Tokyo for quite some time. They tend to sell at exactly the wrong time. It seems many have made that mistake again.
Gloom and Doom Could Lead to Several Positive Surprises
it seems that consensus is to interpret anything that can be viewed as bad, as actually bad, and anything that could be good, as an aberration that will soon become bad.
The Fed Will Likely Cut Interest Rates Wednesday, but Will the Market Care?
Over the past decade, not fighting the Fed has been the single best piece of advice any market strategist could offer.
Weak Bond Action Is a Headscratcher
There doesn't seem to be any particularly fundamental reason for bonds to weaken to such a degree.
Are We Approaching a Minsky Moment?
A Minsky moment is when excessive speculation leads to excessive demand for credit and excessive leverage.
Not Long Bonds Yet? Here's Why There's Still a Good Opportunity
I'm playing for the move down to 1% or 0.50% and earning yield while I wait.
How Low Can Treasury Yields Fall in the U.S.?
Let's look at a number of charts to get some perspective on this investment arena.
6 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Buy Treasuries Now
Bonds got ahead of themselves and there were number of factors at work.
Stunning Treasury Rally Is Likely in Its Final Stage
There are two big reasons why the odds of Treasuries moving higher from here are dismal.
Jim Cramer: Playing This Silly Inversion Game Makes Me Sick
There is no real connection to the economy right now because of globalization.
U.S.-China Trade War: Things Will Get Worse Before They Get Better
I start this week in risk-off mode and want to sell every rally in risk.
The Biggest Takeaway From Powell's Speech and What It Means for the Fed
Literally at the same time Powell was speaking, trade tensions were ramping up.
Bird Watching at Jackson Hole? Doves Might Prove Elusive
With uncertainty around what Fed Chair Jerome Powell might say Friday, it's unclear how much dovishness will take the market higher.
Why I'm in No Hurry to Do a Lot of Stock Buying
The market close will be key Monday.
Bond Market Holds the Line at 1.5%
The bond market is calling the shots for stocks right now.
Inverted-Yield Curve Isn't Really Such a Curve Ball
Why this much-hyped move isn't so special and how to play it to your advantage.
Don't Be Suckered by the Recent Treasury-Bond Rally
But do think about refinancing your home mortgage.
How to Play Potential Rate Cuts
Let's look at the chances of cuts in September and October, and how to use dollar and yen exchange-traded funds to your advantage.
Trade War Reignited: 6 Reasons Why It's Worse This Time
Markets got hit hard in May when trade talks broke down and the president instituted new tariffs, but things are different now.
Dissecting the Rate Cut
While the Fed action was widely expected -- even if the market was hoping for clear signals of future cuts -- here's my read on what this means for markets and how I am thinking about positioning going forward.
Don't Gamble With Fed News, Just Know How to Respond
The announcement of a rate cut is just a trigger that leads to a series of reverberations, so know how to navigate the volatility afterward.