Rates and Bonds
Brace Yourself for the Looming Junk Bond Deadline
As the debt markets sit in a moment of complacency, here's why you should check the balance sheet rundown on each stock you own.
Here's Why I'm Turning Bearish on Stocks and Risky Credit
But I still see one area of stocks that should outperform.
Kass: 5 Big Surprises That Could Impact Markets in 2020
Surprises in the political arena and in corporate profitability are my most important deviations from the consensus.
Market Melt-Up Appears the Mantra for Now
There are multiple reasons to be wary of the market at these levels, and to be concerned about potential of rising inflation.
This Won't Be the Fed That Slays the Bull Market
Clinging to outmoded ideas of what is 'normal' and even what is 'low' will prevent you from seeing just how hands-off this Fed really is.
What We Learned From the December FOMC Minutes
The Committee members seem to be cautiously optimistic, and this fits well with their decision to keep rates on hold.
Don't Trash Junk Bonds: There's a Logic Behind Winning Their High Yields
Investing in these bonds requires a counter-intuitive approach, and reframing how you look at risk.
'Uncertainties' Out of Way, but Fed Hike Still Unlikely
The Federal Reserve left rates alone, but don't miss these subtle signals coming from Wednesday's statement.
A December to Remember: A Look at Fed Action from Last Year
Let's look back to a year ago this month, when most investors saw volatility and a lack of liquidity; and then turn to now, as the tariff deadline looms and the VIX vs. VIX futures gap widens.
Fed Minutes Offer Clues on Possibility of Dec. Rate Cut
It appears that an overwhelming amount of bad news would be needed for the Fed to cut in December, but 2020 is a different story.
Trade Is Reaching an Inflection Point
I see two ways the trade talks can play out from here, and how the effects of each will ripple out into the global economy.
Kass: The Market's L-I-B-I-D-O Is in Overdrive
But is this market's insatiable drive to be trusted?
We're Seeing Something Strange in the Credit Markets Right Now
BB- and B-rated bonds have performed well lately, but CCC-rated bonds are a different story -- this divergence hasn't happened in nearly two decades and it gives clues about what to expect for 2020.
From Treasuries to Trade: 11 Topics to Watch
Here are my views on topics including interest rate risks, events in Europe that could push European yields higher and the ongoing trade talks between Washington and Beijing.
3 Cuts and You're Out
Don't bet on the Fed to make any further cuts after the third, and start preparing for a hawkish turn.
All Signs Point to Falling Rates as Downturn Looms
Here's my take on the Federal Reserve's expanded balance sheet, the Labor Department's jobs survey, and Fed's September meeting minutes.
No False Positive: The Global Economy Is Slowing
Thoughts on the ISM, trade, Friday's key job report and how to play it all.
You Could Have Made 8.7% on Japan in the Last 4 Weeks
International investors have been heavy sellers in Tokyo for quite some time. They tend to sell at exactly the wrong time. It seems many have made that mistake again.
Gloom and Doom Could Lead to Several Positive Surprises
it seems that consensus is to interpret anything that can be viewed as bad, as actually bad, and anything that could be good, as an aberration that will soon become bad.
The Fed Will Likely Cut Interest Rates Wednesday, but Will the Market Care?
Over the past decade, not fighting the Fed has been the single best piece of advice any market strategist could offer.
Weak Bond Action Is a Headscratcher
There doesn't seem to be any particularly fundamental reason for bonds to weaken to such a degree.
Are We Approaching a Minsky Moment?
A Minsky moment is when excessive speculation leads to excessive demand for credit and excessive leverage.
Not Long Bonds Yet? Here's Why There's Still a Good Opportunity
I'm playing for the move down to 1% or 0.50% and earning yield while I wait.
How Low Can Treasury Yields Fall in the U.S.?
Let's look at a number of charts to get some perspective on this investment arena.
6 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Buy Treasuries Now
Bonds got ahead of themselves and there were number of factors at work.
Stunning Treasury Rally Is Likely in Its Final Stage
There are two big reasons why the odds of Treasuries moving higher from here are dismal.
Jim Cramer: Playing This Silly Inversion Game Makes Me Sick
There is no real connection to the economy right now because of globalization.
U.S.-China Trade War: Things Will Get Worse Before They Get Better
I start this week in risk-off mode and want to sell every rally in risk.
The Biggest Takeaway From Powell's Speech and What It Means for the Fed
Literally at the same time Powell was speaking, trade tensions were ramping up.
Bird Watching at Jackson Hole? Doves Might Prove Elusive
With uncertainty around what Fed Chair Jerome Powell might say Friday, it's unclear how much dovishness will take the market higher.