Not much has changed for the S&P 500 weekly chart, but that may not be the case in the coming weeks.
We have reached the point in the calendar where seasonal trends are bearish. Indeed, the next two weeks are historically bad for markets. Over the last 33 years, 26 have been down periods and seven up, which is shockingly poor.
The statistics also bear out that those two weeks in the down years have been extremely bad in percentage terms, averaging declines of more than 1.3%. That may not seem like much. However, when the conditions are ripe for some selling to occur, which could be the case with a market that has been up for much of the year, then it may be time to consider the calendar.
We don't follow these assumptions too often, but the weight of the evidence is pretty convincing, as you'll see in the chart below.
S&P 500
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Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) really is pushing its luck here, and a confirmed week on the downside of the chart is what we have. The index is not below key moving averages but remains vulnerable as volatility is quite low.
If you squint enough you can see a rather small range last week, which is typical when the VIX is sitting around 14% or lower as it is currently. That low level of volatility smacks of complacency, and when the sellers decide to get serious as they did last Friday you have a market that sinks and cannot recover.
The parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) indicator in the top pane, which traders use to determine trend direction and possible reversals in price, remains bearish as well, and we still see a collision course between price and the purple uptrend line over the next couple weeks before a decision point. If that breaks through, downside targets are potentially in view.
(This commentary was originally published on Action Alerts PLUS on Sept. 18. Learn more now.)
