Let's look at whether we're seeing a bear market bounce and if money is still chasing too few assets, as well as what could trigger the 'Mother of All Squeezes.'
Is the time right for a downward move?
It hinges on the movement of the U.S. dollar and whether the flight to safety is over or just on pause.
European currencies are way down vs. the dollar. That makes for cheap vacations -- and cheap stock prices, too. Let's use Manpower Group as an example.
We'll soon see whether the market can handle whatever news is thrown at it in the way of news next week.
There is a way to hedge cash positions in a portfolio while we wait to see if this is a bull trap or the real deal.
For the stock market, dollar strength and Fed tightening are the same trade.
Also, watch the Treasury yield curve this week. Yes, the curve remains horribly mangled.
Two are household names, and the entire trio could see their results dinged by a greenback that continues to rise against foreign currencies.
Nobody thinks the euro can recover, but in the big picture, a $1.00 euro is probably as unsustainable as the $1.60 euro was in 2008.