Monday wasn't a pretty day for the bulls, but given the weakness in bonds and strength in the dollar, I would have expected equities to be hit much harder. With the parabolic behavior of the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) , it isn't a stretch to say that most traders are keeping at least one eye on it in the hopes of spotting a bearish reversal. In the view of many, such a reversal would lead to a rebound in stocks and bonds. Whether such a bearish reversal in the dollar would trigger a sustained rally in stocks is anyone's guess. But for the traders like me, I'll worry about tomorrow after seeing how prices close today.
Remember, the fact that the UUP is gaining ground is the problem. It's the rate of change that has traders concerned. As with most aspects of trading, things such as bonds and the dollar don't matter until they do. And right now, with the dollar moving the way it is, you can bet it's garnering more attention among non-currency traders than usual.
Coming into Monday's session, I planned to establish long positions in several ETFs. But thanks to the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) cracking beneath the session's volume-weighted average price (VWAP) shortly before 11 a.m. ET, I never had the chance to put my plan into motion. Like most traders, I was looking for an opening flush beneath last Friday's lows, but that obviously never occurred.
While I'm still interested in establishing a long position in the QQQ and a few additional ETFs, I'd like to see prices trade under Friday's lows first. If supply is cut off beneath $272 on the QQQ and prices quickly rebound, we will have established a level to measure our risk and trade against.
Barring a situation where supply is cut off beneath last Friday's low, the safest play is to trade against the day session's VWAP until a better setup takes hold and price breaks above the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). The unfortunate truth is this isn't a pretty market. And there's no denying the volatility we've seen in the currency and bond markets has everyone walking on eggshells.