I have been reading a lot about fiat currencies in recent weeks. And I am growing in my acceptance of the idea that we are witnessing the end of fiat currencies and the beginning of commodity-backed currencies.
Hecla Minoing Co. ( HL) is my top equity recommendation for 2023 and probably 2024 and this fits in with this long-term view. 
In my previous reviews of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) I have been expecting a bigger top formation in the U.S. dollar before it made a major decline. I have likened the U.S. economy and its currency to a super tanker in that it can take a long time to change direction. In reviewing some longer-term candlestick charts of the DXY I must change my view to reflect the odds that the DXY has peaked.
In the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the DXY, below, I can see a top reversal pattern in September/October. Notice the equal highs in the 12-week momentum study in the second half of 2022 as prices make new highs. This is a bearish divergence.
The trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator crossed to the downside in October for a take profit sell signal. Recently the MACD oscillator has crossed below the zero line for an outright sell signal. Prices subsequently declined sharply but now show the start of a bottom reversal. A bullish candle this week would help to increase the odds of a low being made.
In the monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the DXY, below, I can now recognize (belatedly) a top reversal pattern in September-October-November. This top reversal pattern comes after ten-record-highs from late 2021.
The 12-month price momentum study has topped and the MACD oscillator has narrowed. The handwriting is on the wall.
Bottom-line strategy: An important peak in the Dollar Index means (everything else being equal) that commodity prices are going to rise. Rising commodity prices will likely get the attention of the Fed and keep them on a hawkish path. The DXY may get a short-term bid from higher interest rates before renewed declines in the months ahead.
This sounds like a broad brush outline of how things may play out. It is. Stay nimble and let's look for more clues to come to the fore.
