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  1. Home
  2. / Markets
  3. / Commodities
  4. / Oil

Crude Oil's Next Move Is to the Upside as Dollar Weakens

A weaker dollar is likely to put a bid under oil prices.
By BRUCE KAMICH
Jan 18, 2023 | 09:02 AM EST

If inflation worries had a poster child it would be crude oil futures.
 
Nearly everyone, everyday is exposed to the price of petroleum as they pass a gasoline station. We are also sensitive to the price of milk, eggs and chicken but it doesn't hit us until we going shopping.
 
On Tuesday I discussed my thoughts on the U.S. dollar. A weaker dollar is going to put a bid under crude oil prices.
 
Let's check out the charts of crude oil. 
 
In the daily bar chart of the continuous (linked together) futures chart of crude, below, I can see the start of a "turn around market." Prices made a low in early December and a higher low in early January. They are above the 50-day moving average line and above the late December price highs.
 
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows a shift to the upside from early December telling me that buyers of crude are becoming more aggressive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator also shows improvement since early December and is close to crossing the zero line for a new outright buy signal. 
 
 
In the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of crude oil, below, I see a bottom reversal pattern in early December.
 
The weekly OBV line has been quietly improving since November. The MACD oscillator is poised for a cover shorts buy signal. 
 
 
 
In this daily Point and Figure chart of crude oil, below, I can see an upside price target in the $93 area. Strength above $93 could open the way to gains to the $110 area.
 
 
Bottom-line strategy: If I am right about rising crude oil prices in the weeks ahead it would likely propel a number of energy plays higher but it could also raise interest rates and hurt other sectors of the stock market.
 
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TAGS: Commodities | Currencies | Futures | Investing | Markets | Oil | Technical Analysis |

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If the dollar index melts through support, the path of least resistance for most U.S.-denominated assets will be higher.

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