• Subscribe
  • Log In
  • Home
  • Daily Diary
  • Asset Class
    • U.S. Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Equity
    • Commodities
    • Currencies
  • Sector
    • Basic Materials
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Energy
    • Financial Services
    • Healthcare
    • Industrials
    • Real Estate
    • Technology
    • Telecom Services
    • Transportation
    • Utilities
  • Latest
    • Articles
    • Video
    • Columnist Conversations
    • Best Ideas
    • Stock of the Day
  • Street Notes
  • Authors
    • Bruce Kamich
    • Doug Kass
    • Jim "Rev Shark" DePorre
    • Helene Meisler
    • Jonathan Heller
    • - See All -
  • Options
  • RMPIA
  • Switch Product
    • Action Alerts PLUS
    • Quant Ratings
    • Real Money
    • Real Money Pro
    • Retirement
    • Stocks Under $10
    • TheStreet
    • Top Stocks
    • TheStreet Smarts
  1. Home
  2. / Markets

Are We Now in the Fifth Stage of Rate-Hike Grief?

Lots of other things will drive markets as we end earnings season, and the Fed seems largely priced in.
By PETER TCHIR
Feb 24, 2023 | 11:39 AM EST

The Kubler-Ross stages of grief often seems to apply as much to markets as to people.

Denial: No way will the Fed hike that much! No way will they jeopardize the economy, or even stocks. The Fed put is alive and well!

Anger: This is insane! What is Powell thinking! Jackson Hole is when you present policy not take $&*^^ potshots at the market!

Bargaining: If they just pivot, we can rally this!

Depression: This sucks! The Fed is holding us back.

Acceptance: OK, inflation didn't improve as much as we thought and is ticking back higher, but so what? The Fed is near the end no matter what. The Fed is data dependent here. If the data stays as is, we can absorb a few hikes easily.

Thursday's trading felt like "acceptance."

-- GDP and Consumption revised down.

-- Inflation revised significantly higher.

-- Jobless claims very low.

Treasuries responded by yields going higher, but stocks held their own.

After a weak, by most measures, 7-Year Treasury auction, Treasuries rebounded too.

The day wasn't without its scary moments, though, as the S&P broke below 3980 (the 50-day moving average), but it regained that. Yes, there were a lot of 1% intraday swings but we bounced. Thank 0DTE options for accentuating those swings, and maybe even signaling direction as the 0DTE day started with puts and calls roughly mixed and then saw calls take a definitive lead around lunch time.

We are down Friday after a higher-than-expected set of PCE inflation readings, but if we really are following stages of "Rate-Hike Grief," markets should respond well to the number over the course of the day.

Lots of other things will drive markets as we end earnings season, and the Fed seems largely priced in.

Questions about the state of the economy will take precedence (there are threads out there supporting the weak economy theory, even though they've lost ground of late).

China asking Russia to pursue peace (on one hand), while allegedly gearing up to sell Russia military equipment, could also swing markets.

I'm bullish on bonds and stocks here (more bullish bonds than stocks, but comfortable owning both).

I will be keeping a closer eye on technicals than usual, as that and 0DTE, along with some possible month-end rebalancing out of stocks into bonds, seems the current "tail" risk.

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.
TAGS: Bonds | Economic Data | Federal Reserve | Interest Rates | Markets | Treasury Bonds | U.S. Equity

More from Markets

How To Adjust Your Trading Style as Market Conditions Change

James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Mar 25, 2023 10:00 AM EDT

There is no single approach to the stock market that is inherently superior over the long run.

Stay Away From These Types of Stocks, They're Radioactive

Jim Collins
Mar 24, 2023 2:35 PM EDT

Here's what you're better off buying. I certainly have.

It's Not Whether the Next Shoe Will Drop, But Where and When

Bret Jensen
Mar 24, 2023 11:30 AM EDT

A few months of anxiety likely lies ahead of us, and caution remains the watchword of the day.

The Good, Bad and Ugly: What's Happening and What Investors Need to Do

Stephen Guilfoyle
Mar 24, 2023 10:45 AM EDT

Right now I have more in cash, or equivalents, than in equities. Ever hear of a Wall Street guy saying that before?

Dr. Copper Has a Lot to Say About China's Economic Growth

Maleeha Bengali
Mar 24, 2023 10:00 AM EDT

China's more focused on the domestic consumer which is the fastest way to get GDP numbers higher.

Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation. If you have questions, please contact us here.

Email

CANCEL
SUBMIT

Email sent

Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.

DONE

Oops!

We're sorry. There was a problem trying to send your email to .
Please contact customer support to let us know.

DONE

Please Join or Log In to Email Our Authors.

Email Real Money's Wall Street Pros for further analysis and insight

Already a Subscriber? Login

Columnist Conversation

  • 01:56 PM EDT PETER TCHIR

    Very Cautious

    I am very cautious here. I don't like how the c...
  • 08:58 AM EDT JAMES "REV SHARK" DEPORRE

    This Weekend on Real Money

    How to Adjust Your Trading Style as Market Conditi...
  • 05:00 PM EDT CHRIS VERSACE

    AAP Podcast on the Fed Decision!

    Listen here!
  • See More

COLUMNIST TWEETS

  • A Twitter List by realmoney
About Privacy Terms of Use

© 1996-2023 TheStreet, Inc., 225 Liberty Street, 27th Floor, New York, NY 10281

Need Help? Contact Customer Service

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data & Company fundamental data provided by FactSet. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions Group.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

FactSet calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

Compare Brokers

Please Join or Log In to manage and receive alerts.

Follow Real Money's Wall Street Pros to receive real-time investing alerts

Already a Subscriber? Login