• Subscribe
  • Log In
  • Home
  • Daily Diary
  • Asset Class
    • U.S. Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Equity
    • Commodities
    • Currencies
  • Sector
    • Basic Materials
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Energy
    • Financial Services
    • Healthcare
    • Industrials
    • Real Estate
    • Technology
    • Telecom Services
    • Transportation
    • Utilities
  • Latest
    • Articles
    • Video
    • Columnist Conversations
    • Best Ideas
    • Stock of the Day
  • Street Notes
  • Authors
    • Bruce Kamich
    • Doug Kass
    • Jim "Rev Shark" DePorre
    • Helene Meisler
    • Jonathan Heller
    • - See All -
  • Options
  • RMPIA
  • Switch Product
    • Action Alerts PLUS
    • Quant Ratings
    • Real Money
    • Real Money Pro
    • Retirement
    • Stocks Under $10
    • TheStreet
    • Top Stocks
    • TheStreet Smarts
  1. Home
  2. / Jim Cramer

Jim Cramer: We Are Coming Into a More Complex Period

Watch for analysts and strategists to turn into armageddonists forgetting that China's the real issue.
By JIM CRAMER Jan 03, 2020 | 12:49 PM EST
Stocks quotes in this article: AAPL, HUM, WBA, BP, SLB, PXD

The headlines were pretty stark: "Trump Strike Kills a Top Iranian," the Wall Street Journal blares; U.S. Strike in Iraq Kills Commander of Iranian Force," shouts the New York Times.

So the market reacts swiftly. Back from vacation and up and at 'em early, I see the futures down 47 ticks at 4:30 a.m. Gonna be a rough day.

Sure enough it was at the opening as anchors struggled to make sense of who Major General Soleimani was and what the heck he was doing stirring up the pot in the always fragile Iraq? Was he behind the protests against the people who did liberate the country from a terrible dictator, Saddam Hussein? Was he the troublemaker trying to create a replay of the Iranian embassy hostage taking as occurred under President Carter, something that pretty much wrecked his presidency?

One after another I heard guests talk about the $70 to $80 oil ahead when the mighty Iran retaliates. The press spoke about Iran as if it is more powerful than the U.S. I am getting used to that; China's more powerful, too.

And what happened?

Oil blipped up a bit. But as my friend Rusty Braziel of RBN.com told me, don't look now but the forward curve, the most important indicator of where oil is going, barely budged. Up 43 cents out five years.

Why?

The U.S.

The moment oil goes up, sellers of the futures come out of the woodwork to raise capital to demonstrate conservatism in order to woo investors. Those sellers are U.S. oil companies that have more oil than they know what to do with and need some ready cash to be sure they can keep drilling with less and less money. Many don't have enough in the till. Others are simply trying to live within their means.

The world has changed since the time when the Mideast controls the oil price. The marginal producer is the U.S. It needs higher oil to stay in the game and it uses it as a honey pot until it's gone.

That blunts the impact.

Does it mean we should use the weakness to start buying everything?

I say that we are coming into a more complex period and it behooves us to have some cash when the big players come back next week and see that the market's not down enough if there is more trouble in Iraq.

It's hard to figure out what Iran's next move is but one thing is for certain, I didn't hear a soul say that the assassination had to take place to actually allow Iraq to rule Iraq and not Iran to do so, although I would argue that a fragile Iraq is the Iranian devil's playground.

I think that analysts, anxious to demonstrate big wins, might be your enemy here.

Sure, we got a couple of price target bumps for Apple (AAPL) one year after the anniversary of its vicious preannouncement. We caught an important upgrade of Humana (HUM) from Goldman; two cautionary notes about next week's Walgreen's (WBA) report.

But these are small time. Watch for analysts and strategists to turn into armageddonists forgetting that China's the real issue, not oil and that killing a general who might have masterminded an embassy takeover is something a Ronald Reagan may have done if he could.

If you must buy oils, here's the list: BP  (BP) for yield, a safe 6.3%, Schlumberger (SLB) for a return to worldwide drilling, something that is happening, particularly by governments, with what looks to be a steady 5% yield, and Pioneer (PXD) for speculation that oil zooms or that you get a takeover.

Otherwise, move on.

(Apple, BP, and Schlumberger are holdings in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS member club. Want to be alerted before Jim Cramer buys or sells these stocks? Learn more now.)

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long AAPL, BP, SLB.

TAGS: Investing | Markets | Oil | Stocks | Trading | China | Middle East | Jim Cramer |

More from Jim Cramer

Jim Cramer: I'll Put My Money With 'Boring but Lucrative' Any Day

Jim Cramer
Sep 29, 2021 1:28 PM EDT

Let's look at that recent downgrade of 'dull' Morgan Stanley and see why exciting is best left for the stadiums and amusement parks -- and not stocks.

Jim Cramer: America's Toughest Job? Finding Workers

Jim Cramer
Sep 28, 2021 12:17 PM EDT

It's the question of our time: Where are the people willing to take on these better paying gigs? Let's see what's going on and what we need to happen.

Jim Cramer: Here's How Analysts Can Be Off By a Wide Margin

Jim Cramer
Sep 24, 2021 12:02 PM EDT

Let's look at the reactions to Nike, Costco and Salesforce to see what happens when they're viewed from a real world perspective.

Jim Cramer: It's Pure Insanity That We Don't Make Chips Here in the U.S.

Jim Cramer
Sep 23, 2021 11:05 AM EDT

While the big guns meet at the White House about the global chip shortage, the president and these companies are approaching this all wrong.

Jim Cramer: Go Ahead, Have a Cow, but I Say Powell and Xi Are Bulls

Jim Cramer
Sep 22, 2021 3:51 PM EDT

We rallied, because China's President Xi and Fed Chair Powell made decisions that they knew would lead to rallies.

Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation. If you have questions, please contact us here.

Email

CANCEL
SUBMIT

Email sent

Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.

DONE

Oops!

We're sorry. There was a problem trying to send your email to .
Please contact customer support to let us know.

DONE

Please Join or Log In to Email Our Authors.

Email Real Money's Wall Street Pros for further analysis and insight

Already a Subscriber? Login

Columnist Conversation

  • 08:44 AM EDT PETER TCHIR

    CPI Beats Expectations, But Maybe Not the 'Whisper'?

    Slightly better-than-expected inflation across the...
  • 01:44 PM EDT STEPHEN GUILFOYLE

    This Holding Lights Up With Strong Earnings

    Check out the latest from TheStreet's Stocks Under...
  • 09:24 AM EDT PETER TCHIR

    Jobs Report Reaction: Incredibly Strong, But Questions to Ask

    An incredibly strong July jobs report. Not only d...
  • See More

COLUMNIST TWEETS

  • A Twitter List by realmoney
About Privacy Terms of Use

© 1996-2022 TheStreet, Inc., 225 Liberty Street, 27th Floor, New York, NY 10281

Need Help? Contact Customer Service

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data & Company fundamental data provided by FactSet. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions Group.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

FactSet calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

Compare Brokers

Please Join or Log In to manage and receive alerts.

Follow Real Money's Wall Street Pros to receive real-time investing alerts

Already a Subscriber? Login