Stick to stocks, Cramer.
I get that at least a dozen times a day on Twitter, usually from someone who believes the election was rigged and that anything short of my saying that means I want Joe Biden to win.
These hard-liners are ill-advised. The fact that I am even thinking that President Trump could somehow nullify the election because he thinks it is invalid is a huge concession given that there seems to be no legal path to stop Biden from being inaugurated. But put that aside. What matters to me is that I need a game plan for both the endless battle of the president to stay president via something I haven't thought about, or if Trump concedes and accepts Biden as president of United States.
You may think that anything that says Trump is staying right where he is is silly, especially because Biden doesn't seem to take the challenge seriously or he would be naming his Cabinet right now and bumping Trump from the headlines he so craves. What I care about is how a portfolio needs to be adjusted if Trump triumphs.
Let me give you five instances of what I mean.
First, the hottest stocks in this entire market are the stocks of auto companies that run on some form of renewables. Many of the renewables need incentives to become viable. The greatest fuel for both abundance and cleanliness is green hydrogen. Elon Musk, of Tesla TSLA fame, correctly states that hydrogen is absurd and stupid because it isn't even a viable source of fuel. But what if a president comes in who favors huge subsidies for hydrogen? You would want to take Plug Power (PLUG) to $40. It would be time to floor it on Nikola (NKLA) . There would be companies you never heard of that would go from sells to buys. You need to know who is going to be president to make that choice.
You can tell that President Trump is gearing up to turn the trade war with China into a cold war. He's had it with them and I think you could make a case that he is right. But if you want to stick to stocks, you need to figure that a lot of Chinese business would go the way of Huawei Technologies and orders would cease. You would need to believe that Apple (AAPL) , which is a holding of my Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust, is next to be sacrificed. The most positive sector in this market is the semiconductor segment. If Trump gets another four years somehow, you need to sell these stocks, plain and simple.
The oils had been terrible stocks because under Trump's policies you could drill anywhere, including federal lands and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The U.S. is the swing producer in the world, which means if it produces a great deal more because of a lax regime then they need to be sold. Under Biden, who will make it tougher, they are a buy as you can see by their behavior since the election.
I like Brunswick (BC) , the boat company. Why not? Under Trump the rich have a huge amount of disposable income. But under Biden the rich get far more heavily taxed. Does that mean that sales of Brunswick might peak? It's a reasonable assumption. There are many stocks just like Brunswick. They go from buys to sells.
Finally there are the restaurants. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner and a total heavyweight, has made it clear that these are at the epicenter of the contagion. Biden has said he will listen to science. If he does, then you have to sell almost every restaurant chain except for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) , which has figured out a way, using technology, to make the stores viable and even immensely profitable. Under Trump you can continue to own them all.