Wait a second. We are supposed to panic over a geopolitical event that may not even have any consequences for MOST of the S&P 500?
Yes, there is a dangerous "escalation" with Iran, a nuclear power, after this targeted association. Yes, Iran vows to retaliate.
But have you looked at the oil curve this morning? Have you looked how little has changed because we have so much oil in the Permian that there is no real issue when it comes to oil supply and that is what Iran vs. U.S. really means, not a recession which is the instant analysis.
That's right, the price of Cushing oil is up $2.41 to $63.60. But the curve is showing really very little movement, with the 2023 price is only up $0.43 to $52.11. We know, as Rusty Braziel from RBN.com reminds us, outages, like the Saudi drone attack, simply don't move the needle.
Rusty's the expert and he's saying that only a long curtailment can impact stocks and even then I would add that most stocks that are impacted won't have earnings cut and I expect that the reaction will be that it could cause a recession. There are so many stocks that benefit from a recession that there could be a monster amount of opportunity (see our moves for Action Alerts PLUS this morning).
The only drag?
Even a big move down doesn't get the market back to where it was about a week ago.
So, first bite small. Next day decline? Bigger.
