Trying to think about what I would possibly say tonight if I were working. Here are some thoughts:
First: Those who compare this to 1998-2000, don't know what they are talking about. These moves are much more vicious and the companies that are leading now are doing much better than any of the ones back then, including the winners of the moment.
Second: The moves for the big cap stocks are historic and breathtaking. Tesla (TSLA) , Salesforce.com (CRM) and now Zoom (ZM) . We have never seen moves like this before. Never. These are huge companies. A 25% move in Salesforce? A 38% jump in Zoom. Tesla, frankly, is insane. And I am a believer. I am just not a believer in this fast a move. But so what? How many do you have to have before you just accept some sort of new abnormal?
Third: People are making fortunes owning individual stocks. I think the era of the index fund is waning. We often see these charlatans say that you need to avoid single-stock risk. Well, if you want to avoid lifetime-like rewards, you can do so, but I will say, as someone in this racket longer than most, someone other than me ought to start speaking the truth: Index funds are for people who do not have the time or inclination, but if you have, I implore you to try to pick stocks. Just join Action Alerts PLUS, already. We do this for a living with a great recommendation list. Sure, we should have had Zoom. If you didn't, that's a mistake. DocuSign, so obvious, when you think about the mortgage market. Tesla, liked it but never put it on the list.
These are errors. You are going to make them. But we have had our share of good ones, and I tire of those who seek guidance and say there isn't any. We have been doing this for more than 15 years and while I endlessly say that we gave up even trying to assess how the trust has done-it's done lousy versus the recommended list I think people are starting to recognize it is a damned good recommended list if you didn't have my ridiculously tough restrictions.
Fourth: Where the hell are the sellers? Stocks go up like this, because there is no volume at any level. The buyers have no discipline, because, of course, they are mostly exchange-traded fund buyers. I think it is better to pick the good ones. I am not going to waive on that. But I think the buyers are so voracious through the ETFs you can't even get your order down to sell. The greed is insane. That people now hate taking profits because they have been schooled that you don't want to churn yourself, creates further insanity.
Fifth: If you are in a hated group, you are dead. This is a day where health care is hated. Is it because of politics? Perhaps -- not that anyone has said anything about them of substance. Is it because there is no recession -- not with housing so strong, not with jobs coming back, not with oil above $43 -- that makes sense. The work-at-home stocks are doing great. The stay-at-home stocks seem to have run their course.
But here's a little experiment. If you were to sell Procter & Gamble (PG) right here and put the proceeds into Zoom, I actually think you will make money. My discipline is killing me, though. I am too old to change that, other than to let things run longer than I would normally. There are very few declines to speak of that allow you to get in.
We lack tools to deal with this market. We lack analogues. But we can say this: The stock market is making the bold -- and the reckless --more money than I have ever seen it make them. There are so many hedge fund managers who have come on and cried danger a long time ago.
If I see them, I will call them out on it. Because they are done being worth listening to. This turned out to be the big kahuna of all time. And they were scared to lose what they have. Their saving grace? Believe me, they never cared about you anyway. Don't care about them, either.