Without a national mask mandate and a closing of the bars and restaurants - the one place where masks can't work - I do not see a way out of the spiral down until we have a vaccine. Sure there can be therapeutics but, right now, I don't see them on a national scale. Of course, we have no policy anyway so maybe it's all an abstraction.
But, to me, we are back to square one without those except for one positive and one negative.
The positive? It's not a death sentence.
The negative? There's no stimulus so everyone in the process of hospitality is sunk: 14 million people with no clear multiplier effect other than to say, "not a good one."
Some of this wave is definitely not a lack of policy, but a lack of belief that it even matters. How else can you explain the rash of cases in Texas, Wisconsin and Florida, the three states which, at least anecdotally in the first two cases, and absolutely in the third. The latter has truly gone off the rails in its insistence that the tourism business shall not be sacrificed upon an altar of health.
What's it mean?
A redux of March?
Not as serious because of the lack of a death sentence but more serious because of a lack of capital in the system. Will companies, once again, face mass bankruptcy? Not clear yet.
What worked last time? Digitization.
What will work this time? Digitization.
What will get crushed? Hospitality, restaurants and travel.
Who is spared besides tech?
The direct to consumer.
Who is sentenced to purgatory? Banks and oils.
How does all of this shake out?
Time and price.
Time is through the election.
Price is set initially, of course, by the futures and the ETFs, giving you no choice but to wait things out until we get out of the murk, picking and choosing among the absurdities to buy.