How much is Trump hated? How much is the market hated? Can they be separated?
Not by some people.
I have been running an experiment of sorts on Twitter over the last couple of days. I am trying to measure how much emotion there is in this market, how many decisions are being made out of blind anger and perceived unfairness and how many are being made coolly and rationally.
Let's take the issue of the two calls between China and Trump.
First, we have to admit, they were very well timed if they happened. It was pretty clear that we would have some sort of huge decline Monday morning if nothing happened, because that was the "set-up," as people didn't get to sell as much as they would have liked given that things had really gone off the rails.
The people who hate Trump were totally cool with that. They want the market to come down, maybe because it will hurt his re-election chances. Maybe because they are short the market. Or both. Neither, of course, is mentioned in their tweets, because that would mean they are biased -- which they obviously are. What they don't get is there is nothing wrong with being biased, per se, in the real world. We all have our opinions.
But they mean nothing to me in the stock world. If you decide to go long the market because you think that the OUTCOME of Trump's comments will be positive, then you should. You need be clinically outcome-derived, NOT dogmatic and emotional at the same time -- two horrendous traits that are found only in the worst of traders.
Even more scatological in my opinion is investing with a belief that the Chinese are all powerful and play the long game and can handle any amount of pain.
I think the Communists have done a fantastic job of putting 400 million people to work. But if they are so all-powerful, why do I watch violent protests occur in their backyard of Hong Kong every weekend? Or does that matter?
Again, think outcomes. The long game doesn't matter. Unless Biden suddenly ignites -- and, to me, he's lost his fast ball -- the candidates from the Democrats are workers party leaders who not only dislike the Chinese for what they have done to American labor, they don't like them for the despoiling of the air.
Of course, some twitter followers hate me because they think I am pro-Trump. I am pro policies that make people money without violating laws or wrecking the environment or outright hurting people. I may be a dollar sign represented by a man. When I goad them I see them for what they are worth: people who would rather make less money than others because they are blind to the opportunities out there.
Or, to put it another way, you made more money yesterday if you bet on the two calls scenario EVEN IF you didn't think they were made. They had their desired impact -- and if you hated Trump so much that you didn't' think that would happen, you can rail all you want at me on Twitter but that's not going to make you much money either.
I have long since given up on being political. I don't really trust any politicians. I do trust my instincts, because they have proven mostly right for many years, or I wouldn't be able to say that I made a lot of money in the market. Again, you can hate me for doing so, but it has happened and it happened because I am trying to judge outcomes, not people.
But what is my judgment about people?
Who cares? And you will never find out anyway.