If you are as sick of the linkage of bonds to the Nasdaq as I am, here's my advice. Get used to it. Remember the stages of grief? You need to stop denying it and accept that, like when we marched to the tune of oil, you can't change it. Are we really supposed to deny the declines we have seen in expensive tech stocks? That's ridiculous. We are using the 2015-2016 paradigm where the Fed Chief Janet Yellen prepped people for a rate increase, first in nine years and we thought that the market was ready and it wasn't. The Nasdaq got obliterated and many of the best stocks fell about 30% to 40% from their highs.
Most of the ones I look at are down only about 25% from their highs - huge but not as huge as back then.
If you remember the sequence it was a nightmare for stocks. Yellen raised rates, the inflation she was fighting was transitory, it killed the economy and took tech down with it. But then you got a tremendous buying opportunity when buyers accepted that tech was finished and they walked away from it.
So far my paradigm's been dead right.
I am a little surprised at the strength of the cyclicals. They go up relentlessly whether they are doing well or not, again because of the rise in rates. You would think they would take a couple of days' breather. But then, again, that's the linkage that is ironclad. It's revolting. It's wrong.
And it must be obeyed.