We live in an S&P-dominated world, so all sorts of stocks go up when there's positive news, even stocks that shouldn't.
That's why we have to be really granular to figure out who really benefits from the delay of some of President Donald Trump's 10% tariffs that were supposed to go into effect Sept. 1, but are now delayed to Dec. 15.
The biggest beneficiary? Apple (AAPL) , because it makes the now exempted cellphones and if the tariff had been put in place in September, it would have cost 50 cents to 55 cents a share, according to a very thorough Wedbush report.
Apple also makes laptop computers in China and it's a beneficiary of the stay. These are huge wins for Apple because they are either going to keep prices lower for the holiday season and see earnings hurt or raise them and lose share, typically to Samsung, when it comes to cellphones. Samsung has no tariff harm as it's exporting from South Korea.
I cannot tell you how powerful this call is. Apple is a total flashpoint within the White House, because it makes so much in China in part because China is a huge market, but they also make so much in the U.S. and have provided funds to make other companies in the U.S. thrive. While Tim Cook has pressed his case well, it is only this morning that he's gotten any sort of break.
This is also great news for a bunch of Apple suppliers, especially Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) , which has been hurt coming and going. I would also cite Micron Technology (MU) , which is already starting to see a lift in flash chips, although DRAMs are still struggling. Don't forget Texas Instruments (TXN) , which has been beaten up, too. Cirrus Logic (CRUS) , which hasn't been beaten up, is still a beneficiary. Qualcomm (QCOM) could be a winner, but you are courting legal controversy whenever you go for that one.
Next up: WATCH -- the major retailers all of which sell pallets and pallets of Chinese goods. All of them -- Walmart (WMT) , Amazon (AMZN) , Target (TGT) , Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD) -- would have had their holiday seasons crimped and their margins hurt if they didn't pass on the 10% hike.
I would point out that Best Buy (BBY) , the giant seller of hardware, is a huge winner, although its stock's run Tuesday pretty much captures a lot of the win. I do expect some upgrades Wednesday, though. We know that certain toys will be exempted and that plays right to Hasbro (HAS) , which, while it is moving toy manufacturing out as fast as it can, still has plenty to do to escape the Chinese clutches. The tariff Grinch will no longer steal Christmas.
I would think that the Chinese would react positively to this gesture and, at last, put that agriculture buy through. That bodes well for Deere (DE) . Anything positive for farmers always helps Deere.
Finally there's a real odd one that I have to flag: the banks. They have been and are always the hardest hit whenever there is a flareup in the trade war. But when there is a truce, they bounce nicely.
Citigroup (C) : It trades below its tangible book value and the company is buying back a gigantic amount of stock this year, more than any other bank as a percentage of its float.
These stocks have all been kept down by the tweet heard round the world: the 10% tariff on the remainder of trade with China. The trade hawks remind us that this is just a delay. But the trade doves are saying that it's the thaw we've been waiting for. I think it is somewhere in between.