I was thinking about magicians that "cut people in half" and then it hit me - what if the price of market leader Tesla (TSLA) was cut in half? Sound too drastic of a move? Consider the losses seen already in the largest tech stocks that have now lost a collective $3 trillion in stock market capitalization over the last year.
Let's check the charts of TSLA once again.
In this daily bar chart of TSLA, below, we can see that prices have been in a downtrend the past 12 months - lower highs and lower lows. TSLA trades below the negatively sloped 50-day moving average line and the negatively sloped 200-day moving average line. The trading volume does not show me a pattern of expanding on rallies so this is a problem.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows a mixed pattern and I am not sure how to treat it. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is bearish but has crossed upwards for a cover shorts buy signal.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of TSLA, below, we see a major top formation playing out over the past two years. A neckline can be drawn from the lows of May 2021 to the lows in May and June 2022. That neckline was broken in the sharp decline in September and October. Prices are trying to hold but further declines appear to be in the forecast.
The weekly OBV line is pointed down and the MACD oscillator is bearish.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of TSLA, below, we can see the $297 area as a potential price target.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of TSLA, below, we see a potential downside price target in the $85 area.
Bottom line strategy: What could cause the price of TSLA to go so low? Fair question. Maybe the supply of critical materials for EVs is cut off or disrupted as part of China flexing its muscles? Maybe Elon Musk is distracted by Twitter (
TWTR) ? Maybe production and sales numbers decline sharply? Who knows? I am just suggesting some possibilities.
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