What's the Next Move for Crude Oil?

A temporary break in oil prices, along with lower interest rates, could be a near-term positive for equity prices.

On June 20 we looked at the charts of crude oil and wrote that "If crude oil is indeed making an interim high and can weaken for several weeks we should have a potential reason for equities to rally if traders perceive that inflation could moderate. Longer-term I expect higher energy prices but a pull back now in energy prices and a rally in stocks will be a welcomed relief for several weeks."

We included a Point and Figure chart with a $99-$98 price target. Here we are... now what? 

Let's check the charts once again.

In this updated daily Japanese candlestick chart of the continuous futures contract, below, we can see a lower shadow on today's large red candle. The lower shadow tells us that some traders are rejecting the low today and that is an early suggestion that the selloff may be short lived. 

 

In this sixty-minute candlestick chart of the continuous futures contract, below, we see a short-term bottom reversal pattern. This is the start, hopefully, of a bounce and ideally a sideways pattern.

 

 

Bottom line strategy: A temporary break in oil prices, along with lower interest rates, could be a near-term positive for equity prices. A higher close for the major averages would be a good start to the second half of the year.

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