It's easy to be critical. Writing about the markets, tweeting about trades, theorizing on strategy and best approaches, these will all result in predictions that fall flat. Pretty sure fall below flat if there is such a thing.
What I do know is investors and traders will hold you responsible for your flameouts. Sure, that one huge call, the dare to different, and you get it right call can make a legacy for some, but let's be honest though, those are rare, especially in a market where we aren't seeing two directions or much in the way of volatility. And often those are littered with the same prediction made a dozen times over before it comes true. If it ever comes true.
But, in the end, people love to call you out for your wrong calls. Ten good calls can be erased by one bad one. Unfortunately, it appeals to our tendency to want to blame. Heck, maybe "need to blame" would be the better phrase.
That being said, I think there are times for justifiable blame. I'm not talking about taking a trade someone else discusses. In the end, you should own every trade in which you press the buy button and press the sell button. I will blame companies though. I won't blame them for me pressing the buy button, but I can blame them for what happens to their stock.
Take Net Element (NETE) for example. Look, I dropped the ball buying this one too quickly even with a scaling in approach. I own that. That wasn't the company's fault. The spiral the shares have suffered since executing their merger agreement with Mullen Technologies though is completely on the company. Again, I'm not blaming them for me being in the red. Individual trades are different than overall stock action.
The issue here is the two companies have a complex deal in the works. There are many moving pieces and ratios of ownership that aren't as clear as the 85%/15% as the initial press release might have you believe. While all the details are buried within Net Element's 8-K and 10-Q, they aren't easy to find. They are even harder to read. The average investor is lost. The above-average investor is lost. Most of the experts I know feel lost on this deal.
When a company makes something overly complex, it will scare away buyers. Maybe management tried to bury a few details that would make the stock less appealing in the $15 to $20 range. Maybe not. But I've asked 10 people about the deal and received 10 different answers.
Companies and management need to be better than this. Explain it to me like I'm in kindergarten. Explain it to me like I'm someone who has to tell the story to my middle-school girls. You make something overly complex that loses investors because they cannot understand and that's on you. We're not talking about explaining deep science or a highly technical product. Sometimes there is no simplifying that but there usually is. In this case, we're talking about one company merging with another. Net Element should have presented the deal in a manner similar to how special purpose acquisition companies do their announcements.
Has it created an opportunity in shares? Probably, but only if the company clarifies what the final transaction will look like for owners of the stock right now. If not, I imagine we'll see that more hesitation is done, so the opportunity would require patience with the expectation of more volatility in the low float stock.
I've done as much digging and comprehending as I can do. I believe the resulting market cap will be above the popular tweets I see regarding the name. However, I believe it will still be in an attractive market cap range compared to competitors' current valuations. But I'd really love to see management step up and remove the confusion around the upcoming merger.