Erck explained the company has worked on two previous coronavirus vaccines as well as an Ebola vaccine.
Novavax has raised $300 million over the past 90 days to fund their operations, Erck said, adding that you need to make a bet that the vaccine you have will work, so it can be scaled up while final testing is completed.
Only time will tell if their vaccine candidate is producing the desirable response in primates, which would then pave the way for human trials.
Let's check out the charts.
In this daily bar chart of NVAX, below, we can see that prices were in a "line formation" of very narrow trading until January. Prices gapped higher on very heavy turnover and that was followed by a shallow correction of about two weeks before the start of further buying.
There is another upside surge and heavy volume as traders pile in in late February and early March as news of the coronavirus spread. Prices doubled from the lows in January and tripled in February. The price action from March has been unbelievable.
NVAX is above the rising 50-day moving average line as well as the rising 200-day moving average line. Moving averages will not be a useful indicator in this kind of explosive move up.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has gone from "lifeless" a few months ago to a strong uptrend to confirm the rally so far. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator turned bullish in January.
In this weekly bar chart of NVAX, below, we went back several years to see that the long-term trend of the stock has been painful. There is a base pattern but it is small, in my opinion, when compared to the decline. The indicators are bullish but that is to be expected at this point in the rally.
In this Point and Figure chart of NVAX, below, we can see the breathtaking rally without price gaps. Here the software is projecting a possible price target of $84.
Bottom line strategy: This is an interesting problem. We have a stock that has produced returns that are truly unbelievable. Imagine the cocktail conversation you could have with your friends from six feet away that you bought NVAX at $5 or $10 or even $15.
We have a potential price target from our Point and Figure chart of $84 but the problem is where would you buy NVAX and what would you risk? If you put a gun to my head (please don't) I would say to try to buy NVAX closer to $35 if possible but you would have to risk below $25 or below $30 at the closest. I would take a rain check.