• Subscribe
  • Log In
  • Home
  • Daily Diary
  • Asset Class
    • U.S. Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Equity
    • Commodities
    • Currencies
  • Sector
    • Basic Materials
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Energy
    • Financial Services
    • Healthcare
    • Industrials
    • Real Estate
    • Technology
    • Telecom Services
    • Transportation
    • Utilities
  • Latest
    • Articles
    • Video
    • Columnist Conversations
    • Best Ideas
    • Stock of the Day
  • Street Notes
  • Authors
    • Doug Kass
    • Bruce Kamich
    • Jim Cramer
    • Jim "Rev Shark" DePorre
    • Helene Meisler
    • Jonathan Heller
    • - See All -
  • Options
  • RMPIA
  • Switch Product
    • Action Alerts PLUS
    • Quant Ratings
    • Real Money
    • Real Money Pro
    • Retirement
    • Stocks Under $10
    • TheStreet
    • Top Stocks
    • Trifecta Stocks
  1. Home
  2. / Investing

Updating My 2018 Tax Loss Selling Recovery Portfolio

Here's a look at the three tranches.
By JONATHAN HELLER
Aug 05, 2019 | 11:00 AM EDT
Stocks quotes in this article: WGO, KHC, UNFI, GIS, KRO, BBBY, HAIN, SKX, BCC, MEI, PETS

Markets have been a bit rocky over the past several days as tariff worries heat up while earnings season is in full swing. That more than wiped away small gains for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 in July. The "damage" is clear in my 2018 Tax Loss Selling Recovery Portfolio, which gave back about 3.5% since the last update. Since inception, this tracking portfolio of names that were hurt in 2018 is up about 9%.

Tranche 1, released on 12/10 is up about 9%, versus 10.2 % for the S&P 500, and 4.8% for the Russell 2000. Winnebago (WGO) (+70%) remains the big winner of this tranche and the entire group, and was up just slightly for the month. Kraft Heinz (KHC) (-32%) actually rose slightly over the past month, but remains in the doldrums overall. The stock now yields 5%, and trades at 11x next year's consensus estimates. United Natural Foods (UNFI) (-43%), remains the worst performer. In fact, the stock was trounced last Friday, falling 10% after BMO Capital lowered its price target to $5, and rating to "underperform". Shares were down as much as 19% before gaining back some ground later in the day. UNFI currently trades for just under 5x next year's consensus estimates. General Mills (GIS) (+43%) was little changed for the month.

Tranche 2, released on 12/12 is up 2% on average, much worse than the S&P 500 (+10%) and Russell 2000 (+7%), after having a terrible month. Kronos (KRO) (+10.5%) fell 20% during the month, on no company specific news, and now yields 5.9%. The company is expected to report second quarter earnings this week, with the "consensus" (just three analysts) looking for earnings per share of 30 cents on revenue of $466.8 million. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) (-21%) put up better than expected first quarter earnings in early July, but has been plagued by the general malaise that many retailers are experiencing, especially those considered to be more "challenged", and lower in quality. It now trades at just 4.5x next year's consensus estimates, and yields 7.4%. Groupon (+2%), fell about 13% over the month, with much of the damage occurring after last week's earnings miss. Hain Celestial (HAIN) (+18%) ended the month up modestly, after dipping to the $20 level in late July, then adding 10% over the past week+.

Tranche 3, released on 12/14 is up an average of 15.8%, better than the S&P 500 (+9.5%) and Russell 2000 (+6.4%). Skechers (SKX) (+49%) had another good month, rising 7%, and jumping into second place in terms of overall performance. SKX reported better than expected second quarter earnings on July 18, issued positive guidance for the third quarter, and rose 12%; all of which has since been given back. Boise Cascade (BCC) (+15.8%) was down slightly for the month, while Methode Electronics (MEI) (+22%) was flat. PetMed Express (PETS) (-24%) was surprisingly up about 5% despite a bad first quarter earnings miss (26 cent earnings vs. 46 cent consensus). PETS trades for about 13x next year's consensus earnings estimates and yields 6.6%.

By way of reminder, qualifying companies had to meet the following criteria:

  • Down at least 30% year to date,
  • Forward price earnings ratios below 15 in the next two fiscal years
  • Minimum market cap $100 million

The resulting list was then whittled down from 200 to 12, and released in 3 tranches of 4 names each in mid-December.

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.

At the time of publication, Jonathan Heller had no position in the securities mentioned.

TAGS: Investing | Markets | Stocks | Trading

More from Investing

Market Smiles as Fed Keeps Status Quo

James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Dec 11, 2019 2:21 PM EST

While there is nothing at all surprising about the Fed decision, investors are happy to have this news out of the way.

Stuck in a Tough Spot, Chevron Drills Down Strategy

Timothy Collins
Dec 11, 2019 11:55 AM EST

Company takes on challenges to cut risk and raise return, and now the technical picture shows it's primed for a quick $5 to $7 move over the next few weeks.

U.S. Defense Spending for 2020, and Trading Lockheed Martin

Stephen Guilfoyle
Dec 11, 2019 11:18 AM EST

If you've ever read me, you know that I have long been involved with almost all of these defense stocks at one time or another.

Ascena Retail Group Offers a Glimmer of Hope, at Least for One Day

Jonathan Heller
Dec 11, 2019 11:00 AM EST

The debt-laden parent of Ann Taylor and Justice posted surprising results Tuesday, causing its shares to gyrate only to finish the day barely higher.

I'm Closely Watching Gold Mining Stocks

James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Dec 11, 2019 10:37 AM EST

There seem to be more calls recently that a major uptrend will begin soon.

Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation. If you have questions, please contact us here.

Email

CANCEL
SUBMIT

Email sent

Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.

DONE

Oops!

We're sorry. There was a problem trying to send your email to .
Please contact customer support to let us know.

DONE

Please Join or Log In to Email Our Authors.

Email Real Money's Wall Street Pros for further analysis and insight

Already a Subscriber? Login

Columnist Conversation

  • 10:55 AM EST BOB LANG

    Strength in Semis and Banks

    Seeing some really good power in the semis today a...
  • 09:16 AM EST CHRIS VERSACE

    Dual Dividend Gift

    Coming up soon on Real Money Pro.
  • 11:02 AM EST BOB LANG

    Added Some Peleton

    This stock is starting to gain some traction, the ...
  • See More

COLUMNIST TWEETS

  • A Twitter List by realmoney
About Privacy Terms of Use

© 1996-2019 TheStreet, Inc., 14 Wall Street, 15th Fl, NY, NY 10005

Need Help? Contact Customer Service

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data & Company fundamental data provided by FactSet. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions Group.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

FactSet calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

Compare Brokers

Please Join or Log In to manage and receive alerts.

Follow Real Money's Wall Street Pros to receive real-time investing alerts

Already a Subscriber? Login