After a tense few days, UBS Group AG (UBS) took over Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) , which is a Stocks Under $10 holding ... for now.
It would have been interesting to be a fly on the wall of the discussions over the past weekend. Meanwhile, shares of UBS were upgraded to a buy recommendation by Bank of America (BAC) as the takeover enhances their scale.
Let's check the condition of the charts and indicators to see if this move was a bandage or something else.
In this daily bar chart of UBS, below, I can see that prices rallied from a low in October. UBS ran up into early March and then quickly reversed direction. Prices broke below the 50-day moving average line and dove quickly toward the rising 200-day moving average line.
Trading volume has been very heavy, but prices stopped short of an actual test of the 200-day line. A new low below $18 might turn this chart bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of UBS, below, I fail to find a comforting picture. Prices made two large bearish (red) candles and prices swiftly fell down towards the 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line shows a decline from May. The MACD oscillator has crossed to the downside for a take-profit sell signal.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of UBS, below, I can see an upside price target of $21 but a trade at $17.95 could turn the chart bearish.
In this second Point and Figure chart of UBS, below, I see a downside price target in the $15 area.
Bottom line strategy: UBS has expressed its confidence that the employment of the staff of Credit Suisse will be continued but Wall Street veterans have learned over the years not to believe those statements. I have no special knowledge of these two companies, but my gut tells me to avoid the long side of UBS for now.
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