We reviewed Salesforce.com ( CRM) on Nov. 30, writing that "the overall impression I get from the charts and indicators is that the longer-term downtrend is likely to continue."
In the subsequent days we have learned of turnover in the executive suite and fundamental downgrades by sell-side firms. Will the bad news stop?
Let's check out the latest charts and indicators.
In this updated daily bar chart of CRM, below, we can see that prices have broken the lows of October and November and have made new lows for the long move down. Prices remain stubbornly below the declining 50-day moving average line and below the bearish 200-day line.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has made a new low for the move down to confirm the price losses this year. The 12-day price momentum study made a lower low in December vs. November telling us that the pace of the selloff has not slowed.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of CRM, below, we went back five years to get some perspective. Prices are testing lows not seen since 2018. This is not real support and may not even be considered psychological support because I doubt if anyone is still thinking about that level or zone from "ancient history." The weekly OBV line is in a longer-term decline from the middle of 2021 (check the chart). The 12-week price momentum study shows a slowing in the decline from February but that has not translated into any bottoming price action.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of CRM, below, we can see the recent decline and a price target in the $94 area.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of CRM, below, we can see a slightly lower price target in the $89 area.
Bottom line strategy: Shares of CRM are oversold when we look at tools like the slow stochastic indicator, but that is not a reason to be a buyer. Prices could bounce but that does not make a bottom and I want to buy bottoms and not try to capture short-term reflex bounces.
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The bears are absolutely convinced that this market move is unjustified -- but what we're seeing has very little to do with fundamentals or the economy.
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