Macy's Inc. (M) stock price has been cut in half the past 12 months, but its decline is not over yet, as we could see prices reach the mid-teens in the months ahead.
In this daily bar chart of M, below, we can see the durable downtrend of the past year -- lower lows and lower highs.
Prices have tested the mostly declining 50-day moving average line, but we haven't seen a test of the 200-day line since late November. The daily On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been making new lows with prices the past year and it tells us that sellers of M have been more aggressive.
In the bottom panel is the 12-day price momentum study, which does not show any bullish divergence yet.
In this three-year weekly bar chart of M, below, we can see that prices are in position to retest and probably break the 2017 nadir. Prices are below the declining 40-week moving average line and there was not a lot of time spent in 2017 in the $18 area to anticipate much in the way of support. The weekly OBV line has been in a decline for more than a year and confirms the downtrend. Downside price momentum has slowed from February, but it has yet to foreshadow a sustained bounce or reversal.
In this first Point and Figure chart of M, below, we can see a close by price target of $17.64.
In this second Point and Figure chart, we can see a price target of $15.64.
Bottom line strategy: Retail has been changing, but it looks like M is not changing fast enough, as its charts are pointed lower. Enjoy the parade, but avoid the stock for now.