Well, I was wrong. No sooner had I penned the words that "there's no way" Thai Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya had decided to run for prime minister for a left-leaning party without clearing the move with the Thai king, who is her brother, than it became very clear she had not cleared it with him at all.
All this has made the Thai stock market very jumpy. A 7.1% rally since the start of this year has stalled, and stocks have twice sold off more than 1% after the sudden twists in the political tale. Expect choppy trading until the election on March 24.
Speculators may want to watch the one Thai-specific exchange-traded fund, the iShares MSCI Thailand ETF (THD) . The US$518 million fund is up 8.6% year to date, but down 1.3% in the past few days.
The political party that nominated the princess, which is closely tied to exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, says on Monday that it will heed a royal decree from the monarch that his sister's candidacy is "inappropriate."
The statement from King Maha Vajiralongkorn says that the royal family should remain above the political fray, as it has indeed remained since the end of Thailand's absolute monarchy in 1932.
"Involvement of a high-ranking member of the royal family in politics, in any way, is against the nation's traditions, customs and culture and is therefore considered improper and highly inappropriate," the royal statement, unusual in itself, says.
On Monday, the Thai election commission formally blocked the princess from lodging her bid for power.
"All royal family members are above politics and are politically neutral," the commission's statement says. "They cannot hold political office because it would be unconstitutional and against the normal of democracy with the king as head of state," not to mention that royal decree from Friday.
One thing is clear then. The princess will not become prime minister. But in showing her hand, the frequent Instagrammer has perhaps become a political kingmaker.
Ubolratana's bid for top office tops them all as a political oddity. Ubolratana stepped down from her royal roles after she graduated from MIT, then in 1972 married an American, Peter Jensen. She settled down to life in San Diego as a commoner.
Last Friday, the Thai Raksa Chart Party registered Ubolratana her as their official candidate for prime minister in the general election coming up on March 24. The party is an offshoot of the "red shirt" Pheu Thai Party that is an offshoot of the one that elected Thaksin in 2001. It keeps getting banned, only to regroup in new form.
After Thaksin was deposed by a military coup in 2006, his supporters elected his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, only to see her too removed from office with a military coup in 2014. These elections will be the first since the military seized power from Yingluck. Thailand has been hoping to see a return to peaceful, democratic, civilian rule - and is unlikely to get any of those three outcomes in March.
The red shirts largely represent the "common man" in Thailand, and they keep winning national elections. Although Thaksin is a telecoms tycoon from a wealthy family, he's a populist who introduced universal healthcare and worked hard and successfully to reduce rural poverty.
Their opponents, the "yellow shirts," have adopted the royal color of the king. They are supported by Thailand's middle class and its wealthy, urban elite. The military has sided with them, in the name of the monarchy.
So it was a shock indeed to see a member of the royal family itself not only endorse but even run as top candidate of a red-shirt party. Ubolratana returned to Thailand in 2001 after getting divorced, and has retained a high profile as an actress and social activist. She's on @nichax to follow, if she approves you.
In running, and on IG, Ubolratana stressed her "sincerity and intention to sacrifice," and that she was exercising her right as a private citizen.
King Vajiralongkorn, 66, is known as Rama X, 10th monarch of the Chakri dynasty. Whatever his sister Ubolratana, 67, does, she's a permanent part of the same royal lineage, in the eyes of the king.
"Even though she relinquished her royal title in writing in line with royal rules, she still maintains her status and life as a member of the Chakri dynasty," his statement said, according to The New York Times.
Indeed, the princess/commoner is known as Toon Kra Mom in Thailand, or "Above One's Head." She will always be the first-born child of beloved King Bhumibol Adulyadej, revered with godlike status inside Thailand until his death at the age of 88 in 2016.
His son has yet to capture Thai hearts, although the monarchy is still respected as an institution. The new king will hold his coronation, delayed in mourning of his father, in May.
The sibling squabbling has only complicated an already complex political landscape in Thailand. It was jostling ahead of the late king's death that prompted the military to seize power in 2014.
The current military junta was forced on Monday to refute claims that it would itself be toppled by an uprising by other factions within the military. That would be a coup to replace a coup.
Current prime minister and former head of the army Prayuth Chan-ocha is running to retain his role in the March vote. He is a staunch supporter of the royal family, so Ubolratana's candidacy left him in an unwinnable situation.
The incumbent is now favorite again among the 69 prime ministerial candidates put forward by 45 parties. That's not least because the new prime minister has to get majority approval, under a constitution enacted after the military took power, from the 500-seat lower house and 250-seat upper house.
Those seats are now stacked with people appointed by the military. The Thaksins have both been convicted of corruption, and live in exile - technically, fugitives of Thai justice. They and their proxies keep winning the popular vote. Their royal patron will have to maneuver via social media and tread softly around her brother's courtiers to ensure her voice of the people is heard.