Lam Research: The Price (Action) Is Right, But There's This Thing About Volume

The chipmaker's shares have traded sideways the past year in what looks like an inverse head-and-shoulders bottom pattern

Chipmaker Lam Research (LRCX) was raised to an "outperform" rating (buy) by a sell side brokerage firm Wednesday with a $600 price target. Let's check the position of the charts to see if they align with the fundamentals.

In the daily bar chart of LRCX, below, I see a mixed picture. The price action is encouraging but the indicators are not lining up in a way I would like.

The shares have traded sideways the past year in what looks like an inverse head-and-shoulders bottom pattern -- a left shoulder in early July, a head in October and a right shoulder in late December. A neckline could be drawn a number of ways but let's call it around the $550 area.

Trading volume does not fit the classic pattern from the 1910 era when traders coined the chart pattern. Trading volume is heavy at the head but it does not show me increasing volume on the rallies and increasing volume on the right half of the pattern. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been stalled since November. I would prefer to see a rising OBV line telling me that buyers of LRCX are being more aggressive than sellers.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is just slightly above the zero line. 

 

 

In the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of LRCX, below, I can see the past three years of price action. I see a rally followed by a correction and potentially a new base pattern. The shares are trading above the flat 40-week moving average line.

 

The weekly OBV line shows a choppy rise the past three years. The MACD oscillator moved above the zero line last month for an outright buy signal. The MACD oscillator shows some narrowing now telling me that the trend strength is fading a bit. 

 

 

 

In this daily Point and Figure chart of LRCX, below, I can see that prices reached a downside price target. 

 

 

 

In this weekly Point and Figure chart of LRCX, below, I can see an upside price target in the $838 area. 

 

 

 

Bottom-line strategy: On Wall Street the reality is that fundamental recommendations get more traction than technical recommendations. I am not insulted but no investment approach is perfect. The price action on LRCX looks right but the volume indicators are not (yet) on board.

 

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