I must admit that I have been stubbornly bearish on the direction of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). I have tried to identify and anticipate a peak a number of times with no success. I am back again with my indicators, charts, and tea leaves.
In this daily bar chart of DXY, below, we can see that prices have been weakening since the middle of July. DXY has closed below the rising 50-day moving average line. There is a bearish divergence with the 12-day price momentum study making twin peaks in June and July as prices made higher highs.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator turned down in mid-July and is now down to the zero line. The slow stochastic indicator shows peaks in June and July.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of DXY, below, we can see some signs of weakness starting with the upper shadow above 108. The 12-week price momentum study shows a bearish divergence when compared to the price action.
The weekly MACD oscillator is crossing to the downside for a take profit sell signal. The slow stochastic indicator shows us a bearish divergence and an overbought sell signal.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of DXY, below, we can see a lot of price history. Prices are close to starting a column of "O's".
Bottom line strategy: The Dollar has made a huge run the past year and again I feel the time is right for a downward move (third time's the charm?). A decline in the Dollar could lift the price of crude oil and other commodities and could prompt traders to rethink their "peak inflation" narrative.
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Let's drill down to see the risk/reward conditions of the stock and why it may no longer be a 'Best Idea.'
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