Key semiconductor manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor ( TSM) is improving on the charts but it's not "out of the woods" just yet. Let's check.
In this daily bar chart of TSM, below, I can see some interesting developments. Prices declined from January to October but soared sharply in November on increased volume. Prices have pulled back or corrected modestly in December and TSM is testing the rising 50-day moving average line from above. TSM is still trading below the declining 200-day moving average line so we know from math that the longer-term trend is still down.
Trading volume has been more active in the past three months but the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line made only a temporary bounce and is now at a new low for the move down. A weak OBV line tells us that sellers of TSM are more aggressive than buyers.
The trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is pointed down and only slightly above the zero line.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of TSM, below, I see a picture that is not convincing the bulls. Prices are still in a longer-term downtrend as they remain below the declining 40-week moving average line.
The weekly OBV line remains in a longer-term decline and the MACD is still bearish. The candles are currently red or bearish.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of TSM, below, I can see that the software shows that prices reached a downside price target of $74.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of TSM, below, the software suggests a downside price target in the $63 area.
Bottom line strategy: It would be nice to one day declare that the worst is behind the semiconductor industry but I feel that today is just not that day. TSM could weaken again in the weeks ahead.
Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.
Let's check on new price targets for WMT and how aggressive traders could play the stock.
Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation.
If you have questions, please contact us here.
Email
Email sent
Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.