• Subscribe
  • Log In
  • Home
  • Daily Diary
  • Asset Class
    • U.S. Equity
    • Fixed Income
    • Global Equity
    • Commodities
    • Currencies
  • Sector
    • Basic Materials
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Energy
    • Financial Services
    • Healthcare
    • Industrials
    • Real Estate
    • Technology
    • Telecom Services
    • Transportation
    • Utilities
  • Latest
    • Articles
    • Video
    • Columnist Conversations
    • Best Ideas
    • Stock of the Day
  • Street Notes
  • Authors
    • Doug Kass
    • Bruce Kamich
    • Jim Cramer
    • Jim "Rev Shark" DePorre
    • Helene Meisler
    • Jonathan Heller
    • - See All -
  • Options
  • RMPIA
  • Switch Product
    • Action Alerts PLUS
    • Quant Ratings
    • Real Money
    • Real Money Pro
    • Retirement
    • Stocks Under $10
    • TheStreet
    • Top Stocks
    • Trifecta Stocks
  1. Home
  2. / Investing
  3. / Stocks

Vaccinate Your Portfolio From the Hype

Let's look at the cold, hard facts around the vaccine rollout.
By JIM COLLINS
Dec 18, 2020 | 02:39 PM EST
Stocks quotes in this article: PFE, ARCT, BNTX, MRNA, CVAC, SVA

While I haven't been vaccinated from Covid-19 yet, I have decided to vaccinate myself from a more remote threat -- stray meteorites -- by sheltering inside with a stash of White Claw seltzers while watching the Raiders-Chargers game Thursday night. So far, it's worked like magic.

OK, jokes aside, I am a firm believer in science and I believe the rapid development of vaccines by Pfizer (PFE)  and others is impressive.

But, we have to separate the hype from reality here.

I was one of the first analysts to publicly write on the potential for mRNA-based therapies -- the basis of the vaccine by Pfizer and BioNTech (BNTX) . I covered the topic in columns about Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) . ARCT exploits mRNA for use against a series of rare conditions, and also has produced a Covid-19 vaccine candidate, ARCT-021, which is currently under trial at Duke-NUS hospital in Singapore and which has already been pre-sold to the governments of Israel and Singapore. Take a look at ARCT's stock chart and you will see that in addition to being pro-science, I am pro-profit, too.

But this is where the idiots who dominate reporting in the embarrassment that is the financial media in this country need to take a deep breath and focus on facts, not ridiculous, mindless blather that hypes anything and everything. OK, here are some cold, hard facts:

No one in the U.S. has fully been vaccinated for Covid-19. Yes, that's right, despite what you have read in the news. The Pfizer-BioNTech (BNTX) vaccine must be given in two doses. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's site has some weaselly language (a four-day grace period is allowed) but, ideally, the second shot should be given three weeks after the first. Both are composed of a 30 microgram formulation. So, despite all the hype, no American has been fully vaccinated for Covid-19 yet, and we won't reach that milestone until early January.

Covid-19 trials have focused on the percentage of a study group that didn't get Covid-19. Were those subjects exposed to the virus that causes Covid-19 -- SARS-CoV-2 -- as Jonas Salk's first brave volunteers were exposed to a live polio virus when he developed his vaccine?

No, not intentionally.

Of course, given the ubiquity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus -- with nearly 75 million cases worldwide according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins -- we can assume that exposure to the novel coronavirus has been widespread. As the CDC website notes, Covid-19 vaccine candidate trials were engineered to find subjects in geographies and population subgroups that had relatively high rates of Covid-19 infection. That's good science, but that's not proof. I still haven't contracted Covid-19, nor have I been hit in the head by a meteorite since sheltering inside. Am I safe? Who knows.

So, this whole global effort -- which has been enjoyable to watch, especially Operation Warp Speed here in the States -- has been impressive, but it has been entirely an effort on proving the negative. Did the subject not get infected with Covid-19? No! Well, what if that person wouldn't have caught the virus, anyway? It is impossible to tell, and anyone buying stocks based on that evidence is really quite delusional.

Do I think a nucleoside-modified messenger RNA (mRNA) formulation should be able to train the human body to ward off the virus and protect a vaccinated person from Covid-19? Sure, I do.

It should work, and the folks at Arcturus, Moderna (MRNA) , BioNTech, CureVac (CVAC) and others have worked very diligently to produce mRNA formulations that are effective. But is the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine any more efficacious than the Russian candidate, Sputnik V, or either of the Chinese candidates produced by Sinovac (SVA) and Sinpoharm (SHTDY)? And, more importantly, will people stop contracting Covid-19 as these vaccine rollouts expand?

You can't answer those questions yet. No one can.

Scientific analysis is much more challenging than calculating a price-to-earnings ratio or discounting a stream of cash flows. But that doesn't mean you should bow down in obeisance to those hard-working scientists and just buy, buy, buy stocks. Those numbers after a stock ticker mean something, dammit. They represent the market value of the company. I have spent the last 30 years of my life learning the science of equity analysis, and I will be damned if I am going to forget that knowledge. Stocks are overvalued now. Incredibly so, and more so than at any time in the current economic cycle. Science always wins, but gravity always catches up to over-valued stock prices, too.

You should vaccinate your portfolio against a much-needed market correction by writing call options against your positions.

Get an email alert each time I write an article for Real Money. Click the "+Follow" next to my byline to this article.

At the time of publication, Jim Collins' firm owned owned ARCT.

TAGS: Investing | Options | Stocks | Biotechnology | Pharmaceuticals

More from Stocks

Carnival's Valuation Is a Head Scratcher

Jonathan Heller
Jan 15, 2021 1:33 PM EST

Markets may be painting an overly rosy picture for the cruise ship company.

Beyond Meat May Simmer Down After Its Latest Rally

Bruce Kamich
Jan 15, 2021 12:56 PM EST

Has Thursday's rally made a significant change to the charts?

I Find Draganfly's Connection to American Airlines Intriguing

Timothy Collins
Jan 15, 2021 12:29 PM EST

Drones are set to become a bigger and bigger part of the commercial world and our day-to-day lives.

GameStop's Charts Show Us More Risk Than Reward

Bruce Kamich
Jan 15, 2021 12:04 PM EST

Let's check and see what clues we can glean from the charts and indicators.

An Undervalued Stock Yielding Over 6%

Bob Ciura
Jan 15, 2021 12:00 PM EST

With a high yield of 6.4%, this is an attractive stock for income investors.

Real Money's message boards are strictly for the open exchange of investment ideas among registered users. Any discussions or subjects off that topic or that do not promote this goal will be removed at the discretion of the site's moderators. Abusive, insensitive or threatening comments will not be tolerated and will be deleted. Thank you for your cooperation. If you have questions, please contact us here.

Email

CANCEL
SUBMIT

Email sent

Thank you, your email to has been sent successfully.

DONE

Oops!

We're sorry. There was a problem trying to send your email to .
Please contact customer support to let us know.

DONE

Please Join or Log In to Email Our Authors.

Email Real Money's Wall Street Pros for further analysis and insight

Already a Subscriber? Login

Columnist Conversation

  • 09:01 AM EST JAMES "REV SHARK" DEPORRE

    This Weekend on Real Money

    When it's time to sell, will you act or freeze?
  • 08:35 AM EST GARY BERMAN

    Wednesday Morning Fibocall for 1/13/2021

    Lower highs... SPX (Long-Term View) The 1/8/2...
  • 08:07 AM EST GARY BERMAN

    Tuesday Morning Fibocall for 1/12/2021

    Watch if the recent trend of lower highs continues...
  • See More

COLUMNIST TWEETS

  • A Twitter List by realmoney
About Privacy Terms of Use

© 1996-2021 TheStreet, Inc., 225 Liberty Street, 27th Floor, New York, NY 10281

Need Help? Contact Customer Service

Except as otherwise indicated, quotes are delayed. Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data & Company fundamental data provided by FactSet. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions Group.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

FactSet calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

Compare Brokers

Please Join or Log In to manage and receive alerts.

Follow Real Money's Wall Street Pros to receive real-time investing alerts

Already a Subscriber? Login