I am not afraid. That is my investing mantra. I have never seen a time of such Orwellian Groupthink applied to everything, and that includes stocks.
So, in that vein, I started my HOAX portfolio, and the results have been fantastic so far. HOAX is up 11.79% since inception (the closing prices of Friday, Dec. 23, are my cost bases). During this time, my benchmark, Cathie Wood's Ark exchange-traded fund (ARKK) has fallen 17.94%. I was going to wait to submit the column until the "stagger," as I call it, hit a full 30 percentage points, but that is not productive.
I have been heartened that so many of you have clicked on my link and gone through the effort of making a "view" request (Google Sheets makes me do it that way; I certainly won't refuse any requests) for the spreadsheet itself.
Yes, HOAX is a funny name, and yes I chose to benchmark it vs. the ARK portfolio of overvalued, under-cash-generative "disruptive" tech names. But that's a valuation arbitrage, not a value judgment. I am pragmatic, not dogmatic.
Also, I can hear the radiators hissing, and I know it's cold here in New York City. I also know that Wednesday's consumer price index and today's producer price index readings were stunning in their absolute magnitudes. So, HOAX takes advantage of inflation, instead of making excuses about it, or as some pundits and politicians are currently doing, minimizing it. Inflation sucks. Full stop. To present it any other way is to conceal reality.
We are already winning by an almost inconceivable amount, but, let me remind you, we receive dividends and they don't. HOAX's current yield is 5.74%, as the market has bid up the stock prices of the individual names (and thus bid down their yields), but its yield at inception was 7.45% on an annualized basis. ARKK has never paid a dividend, and none of its top 10 holdings has even paid a dividend, to my knowledge. https://cathiesark.com. So, the stagger will only increase, other things equal, as the quarters roll by. I will probably remind people of that in my future columns. Probably.
Just to recap, here is my HOAX portfolio:
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Antero Midstream (AM)
Arch Resources (ARCH)
Peabody Energy (BTU)
Suburban Propane Partners (SPH)
Cheniere Energy (LNG)
Flex LNG (FLNG)
Chevron (CVX)
Petrobras (PBR)
Tsakos Energy Navigation Series F (TNP/PRF).
That is a murderers' row of hydrocarbon-producing (or, in the case of Antero Midstream, Flex and Tskaos, hydrocarbon-carrying) cash-flowing names. Cathie said that crude oil is on its way to the irrelevance of "whale oil" (I think she meant ambergris, which is actually still used).
If that is not your particular brand of vodka, seek investing advice elsewhere. At inception, HOAX was equally-weighted, but as the dividend payments flow through, I will opportunistically add to individual names, and maybe even add a new one or two. You can have your ESG -- "environmental, social and corporate governance investing." I will take the dough-re-mi!
I don't argue with mindless drones. I just take the other side of their trades. And, man, is it working.
