A sell-side firm upgraded their fundamental opinion of Tapestry ( TPR) , the owner of Coach and other brands, to a "buy" Wednesday. I pay attention to fundamentals and quantitative tools but at the end of the day it is about the charts and indicators.
Let's check the charts of TPR.
In the daily bar chart of TPR, below, we can see a decline from November around $47 to about $26 in May. Prices nearly touched $50 in May 2021 and nearly touched $25 in May for an approximate 50% correction. From the early May low we can see a late May "retest" where buyers came in at a higher low. Prices rallied into June and pulled back to yet another higher low -- the trading pattern is changing in a positive way. The shares traded above the 50-day line but retreated again. The slope of the 200-day line is negative and the line intersects around $38.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has recovered from its May low. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator crossed above the zero line in June and we'll see if the buy signal continues.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of TPR, below, we can see the 50% retracement a little differently. Prices rallied $40 from $10 in 2020 to the zenith around $50. Half of that $40 rally is $20 and prices have corrected from $50 to the $30 area where we can see a large lower shadow in early May. Prices are still below the declining 40-week moving average line.
The weekly OBV line has been stable for several months suggesting a balance between aggressive selling and aggressive buying. The MACD oscillator is well below the zero line but trying to cross to a cover shorts buy signal.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of TPR, below, we can see a potential price target of $45.
In this second Point and Figure chart of TPR, below, we used weekly price data. Here the chart tells us that prices reached a downside price target in the $27 area.
Bottom-line strategy: Traders could probe the long side of TPR at current levels risking to $27. We are looking for a recovery rally to the $45 area but will accept a lower price if the broader market breaks its May/June lows.
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