T. Rowe Price Group ( TROW) was downgraded by Thestreet.com's Quant Ratings service last Friday. Looking at the charts of TROW here on Monday I come away with a bearish reaction toward the investment management firm. Let's see what could happen when two out of the three major investment approaches turn bearish.
In this daily bar chart of TROW, below, I see a pattern of lower highs the past 12 months. Prices made a low in October and a retest in November, so we need to see a lower low made to refresh the downward trend. Prices are just below the declining 200-day moving average line and below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been in a downward trend the past year and is foreshadowing further price weakness. The trend-following Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is sitting on the zero line so it could turn up or down from here.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of TROW, below, I see the possibility of further weakness. Prices are in a longer-term downtrend and trade right at the declining 40-week moving average line. The weekly OBV line is pointed down and tells me that sellers of TROW remain more aggressive than buyers. The MACD oscillator has improved but still remains below the zero line and the two moving averages of the indicator are very close to each other.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of TROW, below, the software is projecting a potential downside price target in the $89 area.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of TROW, below, the same $89 price target is shown.
Bottom line strategy: When two investment approaches are on the same page I tend to pay attention. Avoid the long side of TROW.
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Right now I have more in cash, or equivalents, than in equities. Ever hear of a Wall Street guy saying that before?
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