Historically the odds favored positive returns for the two days surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday. It worked for the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) , which gained 1.34% during that period, but both the DJIA and S&P 500 were unable to manage a gain.
Breadth was negative but only marginally so. What really weighed on the market was weakness in FAANG names -- Facebook (FB) , Amazon (AMZN) , Apple (AAPL) , Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet/Google (GOOG) , (GOOGL) -- Apple, in particular, along with banks and oil. Retail, biotechnology and small-cap bounced, which is a good sign, but there is no doubt that market players are skittish and are not very worried about the market running back up without them. Fear of missing out was one of the big market drivers during market uptrends earlier this year. There are no signs of that dynamic at present.
Next week, there will be much discussion of China trade in front of the meeting between Trump and Xi in Argentina at the G-20 meeting starting on November 30. The good news is that expectations for a deal are very low. The bad news is that the expectations may not be exceeded.
We should have some rumors about some progress on trade next week, but the big obstacle is the very poor technical condition of the market. The relative strength in small-caps is a good sign, but Apple continues to look like a bottomless pit -- and that puts a tremendous amount of stress on the market.
The potential for a decent bounce into the end of the year is good, and the fact that there is so much skepticism is a positive.
Have a great weekend. I'll see you on Monday.