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  1. Home
  2. / Investing
  3. / Stocks

Should I Buy My Fifth Volkswagen or the Stock?

I have a long history with VW and the shares have made a serious rally.
By BRUCE KAMICH
Mar 18, 2021 | 09:59 AM EDT
Stocks quotes in this article: VLKAF

In the summer between my freshman and sophomore years in college I bought a very used 1963 Volkswagen Beetle for $350.

I was working that summer in a local gas station. I did everything from pumping gas to changing oil, rebuilding starter motors to swapping out an engine. I worked on the car all summer and drove it to Connecticut in the fall. I drove it for the entire year and got 44 mpg when I drove to upstate New York to visit my future wife. I sold it reluctantly the following summer for $300. I got my money's worth and had lots of memories.

When our twin sons turned sixteen I purchased two fixer-upper VW bugs ('72 and '73) for a grand total of $1,300. They picked them out. It was a father-son project for the next year until they got their driver's licenses. The cars needed a lot of work before they were even street worthy and somewhat safe -- think money pit.

They customized them as they wanted. (Our older son got a 1969 small block Chevy Camaro but we kept it stock except for upgrading the radio.) They all learned to drive a stick shift, change the oil and gap the plugs. They had sweat equity in those cars and were more careful drivers than their classmates who got new or slightly used cars from their parents.

Enough reminiscing, let's check out the charts of Volkswagen (VWAGY), which also trades under the symbols VWAPY and (VLKAF) . 

In this daily bar chart of VWAGY, below, we can see that the shares have soared since early November. Prices have more than tripled in just a few months -- that's what you call impressive acceleration by Road & Track. The slope of the 50-day and 200-day moving average lines are positive and with VWAGY trading at more than twice the level of the 200-day line I would consider the stock price extended or overbought.

The trading volume has expanded the past four months and the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has risen with the price action and tells us that buyers are being more aggressive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is in a very bullish alignment above the zero line.  

 
 
In the weekly bar chart of VWAGY, below, we can see that prices made a large base around $15 before the recent markup phase. Prices are above the rising 40-week moving average line.
 
Trading volume is rising. The OBV line looks like a very strong "hockey stick." The weekly MACD oscillator is bullish too.  
 
 
In this daily Point and Figure chart of VWAGY, below, we can see the one-way rally. Prices have really exceeded the price target of $25. 
 
 
In this second Point and Figure chart of VWAGY, below, we used weekly price data with a five-box reversal filter. We were torturing the data to try to get a more bullish price target. The software only shows a $36 target now, which of course has been overshot.  
 
 
 
Bottom-line strategy: So our fourth VW as a Jetta back in the 1990s. Today I am interested in VW's EV offerings. The ID.3 is very innovative, good range and a reasonable price tag. It may not come to the U.S. for some time to come. But enough about the car: what do I think of the stock? 
 
The shares have made a serious rally and discounted a lot of future bullish news. A sideways or lower correction is likely to unfold over the weeks ahead. I am willing to see how VWAGY behaves in the mid-$30s before making a commitment.

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, certain stocks are subject to more risk, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

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TAGS: Investing | Stocks | Technical Analysis | Automotive | Electric Vehicles

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