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  1. Home
  2. / Investing
  3. / Stocks

RMPIA Lags in November, but Trounces S&P 500 for Quarter, Year So Far

Now, many Real Money Post Industrial Average stocks should see a boost from the holiday splurge by shoppers.
By CHRIS VERSACE
Dec 02, 2019 | 05:00 PM EST
Stocks quotes in this article: ADBE, AMGN, CVS, REGN, BKNG, KHC, CMCSA, AAPL, CELG, AMZN, COST, MA, NKE, SBUX

We've now closed the books on November, a month that saw all key major U.S. stock market indexes climb higher led by the Nasdaq Composite Index, which finished up 4.5% for the month. Close behind was the Russell 2000, which climbed 4%. Trailing behind were the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and despite that lag, November marked the best month for the S&P 500 since June.

While the Real Money Post Industrial Average (RMPIA) lagged in November, rising 1.9% month-over-month, it continued to trounce the institutional investor benchmark that is the S&P 500 on both a quarter-to-date and year-to-date basis. For the first 11 months of 2019, RMPIA rose just shy of 28% compared with 25.3% for the S&P 500 and 20.3% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

In November, 18 of RMPIA's 30 constituents rose more than the 3.4% gain posted by the S&P 500, led by double-digit increases in the shares of Adobe Systems (ADBE) , Amgen (AMGN) , CVS Health (CVS)  and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) . Those aggregate gains were offset, however, by declines at Booking Holdings (BKNG) , Kraft Heinz (KHC) and Comcast (CMCSA)  shares. RMPIA's market-beating year-to-date performance was due to vibrant gains led by the 19 constituents that are up more than 20% year to date. That cohort is led by Apple (AAPL)  and Celgene (CELG) , both of which are up more than 65% over the last 11 months.

Fueling the market indexes higher during November were on-again, off-again hopes that a U.S.-China trade deal was possible and data that showed a domestic recession was becoming less likely. We think market watchers are growing increasingly tired of this "He said, Xi said" back and forth with trade talks. Our concern now is the longer a phase-one deal takes, the greater the risk that investors and the market could be underwhelmed. We say this knowing full well the market has put in several new highs of late across various indexes. As we begin the march toward 2020, investors will be looking toward tangible progress of a phase-one trade deal between the U.S. and China, as they digest the latest data to assess the speed of the global economy as well as 2020 earnings per share expectations.

We recently received back-to-back reports that showed China's manufacturing activity bounced back in November. China's Purchasing Managers' Index recovered to 50.2 in November vs. 49.3 in October, marking the first time in several months the indicator has risen above 50, which is the expansion-contraction line.

The November Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.8 from October's 51.7 vs. expectations for a decline to 51.4. Per the report, "new export orders saw the first back-to-back monthly rise for over a year-and-a-half. Staffing levels were broadly stable following a seven-month sequence of decline, but capacity ... the level of positive sentiment towards the 12-month outlook for production slipped to a five-month low in November." Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index did even better, coming in at 54.3 vs. expectations for 53.1.

Japan saw its manufacturing contract once again in November, as export orders hit their weakest level in five months. The Jibun Bank Final Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 48.9 from 48.4 in October -- an improvement but still contracting. And with new orders remaining in contraction territory, odds are slim we will see a rebound above 50 in December. Eurozone manufacturing contracted for the tenth consecutive month in November with IHS Markit's PMI index hitting 46.9. While up from October's 45.9 reading, new orders remained in contraction territory for the month with net export orders falling for the 14th consecutive month.

We also received the final November IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, as well as the November ISM Manufacturing Index, and simply put, they were at odds with each other. While the November IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. pointed to a faster rate of improvement with its 52.6 reading, up from 51.3 in November, complete with the pace of new order growth quickening during the month, ISM's findings showed November manufacturing activity dipped month-over-month to 48.1. Key ISM indicators, including new orders, employment, backlog of orders and new export orders all fell in November.

Subsequent to that and other key end-of-the-month, start-of-the-month data expected this week, we'll be checking the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed for their latest December-quarter gross domestic product forecasts. Factoring the IHS Markit data into our thinking, the U.S. remains  a -- and possibly the only -- bright spot in the global economy due in part to the power of the domestic consumer.

As we saw, Thanksgiving Day this year was about more than just turkey with shoppers spending a record amount online Thursday and Friday. Data from Adobe Systems (ADBE) found shoppers spent $4.2 billion online on Thanksgiving Day, a 14.5% increase year-over-year and a new record high with 65% of digital orders placed via a smartphone. The digital spending continued on Black Friday, hitting $7.4 billion per Adobe, but the consumer love was not felt at brick & mortar stores to the same degree. Data from ShopperTrak found that while brick & mortar sales rose 2.3% on Thanksgiving, they fell 6.2% on Black Friday.

As the long shopping weekend concludes, Cyber Monday sales are expected to set a new record as the largest and fastest-growing online shopping day of the year with $9.4 billion in sales, an almost a 19% increase year-over-year. We see all of this consumer spending boding well for several RMPIA constituents including Apple, Amazon (AMZN) , Costco Wholesale (COST) , Mastercard (MA) , Nike (NKE)  and Starbucks (SBUX) .

(CVS, CMCSA, AAPL, AMZN, MA, and SBUX are holdings in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS member club. Want to be alerted before Jim Cramer buys or sells these stocks? Learn more now.)
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At the time of publication, Versace had no position in the securities mentioned.

TAGS: Investing | Stocks | Retail | Real Money

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