In recent weeks predictions of a major market top have been becoming louder and more common. It isn't difficult to understand the logic.
There are signs that the economy is slowing, the Fed is running out of ammunition and there is little growth in corporate earnings. In addition, there are other concerns such as trade wars, politics and the fact that there hasn't been a major bear market in a very long time. These arguments are quite compelling.
The problem is that no one is able to time when these things might matter. The big picture bears tell us with great certainty that the day of reckoning is coming but they have been saying that for a very long time and the opportunity cost of being wrong is so high that it will take some substantial downside just to return to even.
Most market players would be better off if they simply ignored these predictions of disaster and stayed focused on price action instead. When the day comes that the bearish arguments matter -- and it will eventually come -- it will become very evident in the price action. Bear markets don't just start overnight. There will be warnings signs and many individual stocks will start to act poorly.
If you paid attention to the warning signs in 1987 then you would have missed an epic crash. There was no need to make predictions about what was going to happen. The only thing you needed was the price action and it was flashing very clear signs that there were problems.
In the current market, there has been some dramatic action under the surface in momentum stocks, bonds, and oil but there still is nothing that shows that the predictions of doom are about to occur. Many pundits make a living predicting what awaits the ignorant bulls that don't heed their wisdom but the market refuses to confirm their warnings.
As I write this the S&P 500 is close to testing its early lows. If the indices reverse their gains Thursday and close in the red that will be a minor warning sign of problems but this is still a market that is acting in a healthy manner.
It is helpful to understand the bearish arguments but don't act on them until there is some hard proof in the form of price action. That is the only thing that ultimately matters.