Payroll and human resource services company Paychex ( PAYX) saw its price target cut to $138 by a fundamental sell-side analyst Thursday. I took a look at the charts of PAYX and saw a major top formation. The implication is for a significant decline in the weeks and months ahead.
Let's look together.
In the daily bar chart of PAYX, below, we can see three distinct peaks -- January, April and August. Buying interest (support) is visible in the $110 area. Consider $100 a "neckline." Trading volume shows us an up and down and up and down pattern but the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line shows us a long decline as traders display a pattern of more aggressive selling. A long period of aggressive selling is what I would want to see in a major top formation.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is bearish.
In the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of PAYX, below, we can clearly see the three tops. We can also see that the shares are now trading below the declining 40-week moving average line. The buying interest around $110 is clear and we also expect that the break of this support to be clear too.
The weekly OBV line has struggled for the past year and the MACD oscillator is right on the zero line line poised for a new sell signal.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of PAYX, below, we can see a downside price target of $107 or so. This would mean a break of the neckline at $110.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of PAYX, below, we can see a price target in the $104 area.
Bottom-line strategy: The Point and Figure charts suggest targets of $107-$104 but the height of the pattern ($30) projected to the downside (subtracted from the neckline at $110) gives us an $80 price target. Avoid the long side of PAYX as the downside risk is high.
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We are witnessing one of the most extreme disconnects in decades between the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000.
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