Netflix Looks Vulnerable in the Weeks Ahead

The buying interest could be waning.

Shares of Netflix (NFLX) continue to look weak. Dips and declines in the $480-$460 area over the past five months have encountered buying support but the buying interest could be waning, leaving the shares vulnerable to a deeper decline.

We looked at the charts of NFLX on Nov. 4 we wrote that, " We were cautious in our Oct. 20 review and we continue to be cautious until the charts tell us otherwise."

In the updated daily bar chart of NFLX, below, we can see that the shares have been unable to start or restart a sustained advance. NFLX is trading between the flat to declining 50-day moving average line while the rising 200-day moving average line is getting closer.

The trading volume has declined from late October and the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been making lower highs since early July suggesting that sellers of NFLX have been capping rallies the past five months. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory but might generate a cover shorts signal.

 

 

In the weekly bar chart of NFLX, below, we can see a less-than-robust picture. Prices are in a sideways trend and approaching the rising 40-week moving average line. A test of the 40-week average looks likely in the weeks ahead.

 

The weekly OBV line shows a decline from May which suggests that sellers have been more aggressive for several months. The MACD oscillator crossed to the downside in August giving us a take profits sell signal.

 

 

In this daily Point and Figure chart of NFLX, below, we can see a potential downside price target in the $406 area. 

 

 

 

Bottom-line strategy: I am not sure what news might turn NFLX lower with the next quarterly earnings report a ways off, but the chart is and has been weakening for several months. Avoid the long side.

 

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