I'm not a huge fan of anticipation, but with Palantir (PLTR) opening Wednesday, I expect we'll see some action in Suro Capital ( SSSS) , which has an ownership stake dating back to when Palantir was private. Quick note for dividend chasers: The company will be paying a $0.25 dividend on Oct. 2. Based on the June 30 10-Q, we can see that Palantir's common shares were nearly 16% of the portfolio, plus an additional 3.6% in a Palantir SPV. This SPV is a collateralized loan, receiving 15% interest and a percentage of share price appreciation in the underlying collateral.
Overall, it's not a bad proxy for Palantir and SSSS' largest holding, Coursera, is an attractive online education play, there's a lot to like here. The next largest play, Course Hero, is also online education, so post-Palantir, SuRo remains a strong proxy for private online education companies. The company ended the June 30 quarter with a net asset value of $11.84 per share. While we're trading a dollar above that, I don't think the current value is likely much under that, given the strength in the online education sector.
The October $15 options are trading the most aggressively at the moment, while the October $12.50 calls offer an attractive covered scenario, as well. I anticipate an initial push followed by some cooling, although it will all depend on how the market reacts to Palantir. If we get anything sniffing Snowflake's ( SNOW) first day or even JFrog ( FROG) , then SuRo should be a huge benefactor. I have a hard time seeing that kind of reaction, but I do think we'll see initial buying on Palantir.
One other stock I'd watch on a breakout here is Upwork ( UPWK) . I've written about this one previously. If the uptick in Covid-19 cases continues, this weekly chart is setup for a breakout higher. We have the huge V-shaped bounce that has already played out, followed by several months of consolidation in the $13.50 to $16.75 range. With Tuesday's push to $17, UPWK is setting for a potential push to $20 before Thanksgiving. Both trend and momentum, as seen in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence and Full Stochastics, have pushed higher, so this has a solid look to it. If the stock closed under $15.25, I would step aside and wait for a drop of another dollar before considering getting back on the long side, if doing anything at all.
