Yes, I know, we need to talk about the Dow crossing 30,000. Or do we?
I want to note, instead, that breadth was good, yet again, as it has been for weeks. But there was a minor twist on Tuesday. Net breadth was pretty much what it was on Monday; actually, it was a smidgen less. Monday, the S&P 500 was up 20. Tuesday, it was up almost 58. I think it's because the big-cap tech stocks got some love on Tuesday.
It has been my contention that when big-cap tech rallies, it has a tendency to draw from everything else. So the other stocks suffer. Now, honestly, they didn't suffer very much, but if we get a few days where big cap tech rallies I think we'll see breadth falter. It remains an Either/Or Market.
Keep in mind the McClellan Summation Index continues to rise. It now needs a net differential of negative 3,400 advancers minus decliners to halt the rise so it would take a lot of weak breadth to turn this indicator sour. However at negative 3,400 it's back to overbought again.
One other thing to keep an eye on: new highs.
I noted a week ago that with the big spike on "Pfizer Monday" that saw so many stocks close off their highs it was only natural that we wouldn't exceed those readings easily. Now we're a couple weeks beyond that, and the number of new highs has increased, but not over those prior readings. If we see a shift to the big-cap tech names, the new highs could tail off and head back down without having exceeded that prior peak. That would increase the odds of a correction in early December.
Then there is sentiment. Anecdotally it is giddy. I don't care how you look at it. But if you want statistics then the CNN Fear and Greed Index, which was 24 on Nov. 2 is now 88. It got to the high 90s in early January. I suppose it can get up there again, but over 80 is definitely giddy.
The put/call ratio was .65 for the second straight day. That too shows enthusiasm at levels we haven't seen in a while. Then there is the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) for the VIX. It got back to 10. It can't quite breach that double-digit level to go to single digits, but it's close enough to be a yellow flag. And another day or two up in stocks and it should fall to single digits.
Now let's talk about gold. I am shocked that for the second straight day there was no conversation about the fall in the yellow metal on television. Gold the commodity has collapsed $70 in two days and no one even cares. They care more about Dow 30,000.
The DSI did finally come down. It is at 20. The gold exchange-traded fund (GLD) is also into my target zone. Due to the holiday I might be a little early but I think gold is due a bounce.
Note: My next column will be Monday. Wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!
