In past market cycles the announcement of layoffs by a public company has at times marked a price low for the company's stock. Software, cloud and gaming giant Microsoft ( MSFT) announced Tuesday that they were laying off 1,000 employees as global demand slowed. You could say this was a very small amount of the company's total headcount or you could posit that this lagging indicator is going to help identify a low in the stock price.
Let's check further.
In the daily bar chart of MSFT, below, we can see that the shares have declined the past 12 months. Trading lows have not survived and the most recent low in October may not last either. Prices are below the declining 50-day moving average line and below the 200-day moving average line.
The trading volume has increased in recent weeks but not by an amount to suggest to me that investors are being attracted. The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line remains weak. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is bearish but could generate another cover shorts buy signal.
In the weekly Japanese candlestick chart of MSFT, below, we do not see a compelling bullish setup. The shares are in a longer-term downward trend as they trade below the bearish 40-week moving average line.
The weekly OBV line is bearish and so is the MACD oscillator.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of MSFT, below, we can see a downside price target in the $200 area.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of MSFT, below, we see that the software is projecting the $175 area as a potential price target.
Bottom-line strategy: MSFT is not scheduled to report their latest quarterly number for another week but the charts are not lining up for a rally. I would avoid the long side of MSFT.
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GDP, unemployment claims, and durable goods reports were better than expected, creating hope that the Fed will be able to create a soft economic landing.
Here are the key price levels to watch in the days ahead.
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