You know when you want to count the number of occurrences of a specific word in a document and you type in "Ctrl F"? I wanted to do that during Tuesday action, because it seemed like the word "resilient" was spoken and written so often I was certain it would be a record.
And boy were the S&P 500 and Nasdaq resilient. Oh, and big-cap tech was, as well. But that's where the resiliency ended.
Small caps had their worst day in more than six weeks. Breadth was the worst since then, as well. I even heard someone say that "every stock has gone up." I suppose he hadn't looked at the oil stocks. Or the natural gas stocks. Or the banks, which are down on the year. And heck, some industrials are languishing, as well. And surely he hadn't looked at U.S. Steel (X) , had he?
Speaking of the banks, I still think the Bank Index will get oversold enough and bounce off that $108 area, but can you call that a good chart? Can you say this group has "gone up," when if you bought it in early December you are flat?
And I am certain someone will argue that Boeing (BA) has its own unique problems (it does), but is this a stock that has "gone up"? I am not much of a fan of giant tops like this when there is so much news surrounding the name. I mean, who doesn't know Boeing's problems? You have to have been living under a rock not to know. If you wanted to sell, wouldn't you have sold already?
So, yes, a break of this area of $280-$300 would look ugly, but I am inclined to wonder if the break, should we get it, turns out to be the culmination of selling rather than the beginning of it. It would depend on how hysterical folks got if it got down there. Hysteria in down-and-out stocks tends to mark a low, not a new fresh leg of a decline.
Tuesday's underlying breadth was poor, which keeps the McClellan Summation Index flat, as it has been for weeks. Two weeks ago it tried to head down, but got saved last week. Even then it could not turn upward. And now it needs breadth to be positive again to keep it from rolling over.
Perhaps it is just that the market ran out of upside momentum by getting overbought. But the number of stocks making new lows expanded greatly on Tuesday. There are now the most new lows in almost a month for both Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange.
Finally the Investor's Intelligence bulls could not quite get themselves over 60%. They managed 59.4%, which is the highest reading since we saw 58.9% two weeks ago and prior to that 61.8% as we headed into October of 2018. What's clear is in the last two days the resilience in the market is narrowing, not expanding, and that makes it hard for me to love the market here.